The Penguins may head into the season hoping for a playoff run, but the path in front of them looks anything but certain. If Pittsburgh slips, a deadline sell-off could follow - and Elliotte Friedman floated one of the biggest names in the organization as a possible trade chip.
On his 32 Thoughts Podcast, Friedman passed along a prediction he said came from someone else, and it pointed straight to Erik Karlsson landing in Toronto.
"One guy said to me, 'I have a 2026-27 prediction for you,'" Friedman claimed. " I said, 'Okay, what is it?'
And he goes, 'My prediction is Erik Karlsson becomes a Toronto Maple Leaf, depending on how both teams' seasons go.' I was like, 'Oh, that's a good idea.'"
That idea hinges on two very different seasons unfolding. Toronto would need to bounce back after a year to forget, while Pittsburgh would have to fall well short of where it finished in its last campaign by the time the trade deadline arrives. Friedman didn’t present it as a certainty, but he made clear it was a scenario worth keeping in mind.
For the Penguins, Karlsson is the obvious name to watch. He is their top defenseman and just turned in his best season in black and gold, which means his value may be as high as it’s going to get. He is also scheduled to reach free agency after this season, so his stay in Pittsburgh already has a built-in expiration date.
A move to the Maple Leafs would not be simple. Toronto would need to juggle its cap situation to make room, and the Penguins would likely have to absorb some of Karlsson’s $10 million cap hit to get a deal done. As things stand, Toronto is in the negative when it comes to available cap space, which would make a trade of that size difficult to pull off.
Still, the broader picture in Pittsburgh remains clear: the Penguins do not appear eager to hold onto Karlsson beyond this season. That could change, but with so many questions surrounding the roster, flexibility makes plenty of sense.
If the Penguins do end up selling, Karlsson would be one of their biggest deadline assets. And if the season goes badly enough, he may not be the only familiar name on the move. Bryan Rust, Rickard Rakell, Evgeni Malkin, and other core pieces could also surface in trade talks before the deadline.
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