As we hit the Olympic break in the 2025-26 NHL season, the Pittsburgh Penguins are in a spot few saw coming - not just in the playoff mix, but firmly in the conversation as a team that could make real noise come spring.
This wasn’t the narrative most expected when the season began. The chatter was supposed to be about potential sell-offs, the futures of veterans like Erik Karlsson, Rickard Rakell, and Bryan Rust, and maybe even the beginning of the end for Evgeni Malkin.
And yes, the Malkin conversation is still coming - that’s a sit-down between the man himself and Penguins management set for the Olympic break. But what’s changed is the context.
Because right now, the Penguins aren’t limping toward the deadline. They’re charging into it.
Let’s start with the standings. Pittsburgh sits second in the Metropolitan Division, trailing the Carolina Hurricanes by eight points - but with a game in hand and three head-to-head matchups coming in March.
That’s a swing opportunity if ever there was one. And it’s not just the Metro that’s in play.
The Eastern Conference as a whole feels wide open, and the Penguins have quietly been stacking up results against the best of the bunch.
They’ve gone 5-2-1 against the four teams ahead of them in the East - Tampa Bay, Carolina, Montreal, and Detroit. Both regulation losses came against the Canadiens, but overall, that’s a strong record against top-tier competition.
More impressive? Their dominance inside the division.
Pittsburgh is 10-1-5 against Metro opponents this season. That’s a massive turnaround from last year, when intra-division games often spelled trouble.
And it’s not just the results. The way they’re playing tells a story of a team finding its identity - and fast.
After a rocky start, the defensive numbers have stabilized. They’re hovering around league average in key defensive metrics, which, for a team with this much offensive firepower, is more than enough.
Special teams have been a major boost. The penalty kill is third-best in the league at 84%, and they’ve allowed just six power play goals in their last 57 kills since the holiday break - including only three in the last 42.
That’s elite-level stuff.
Even with some recent hiccups, the power play is still clicking at 25.9%, good for fourth in the league. And at five-on-five, they’re holding their own against quality opponents - not just surviving, but controlling play.
This is not the same Penguins team that’s missed the playoffs three years running. According to Moneypuck.com, Pittsburgh now has an 85.5% chance of making the postseason - a number that ranks ahead of all but six teams in the NHL.
In the East, only Carolina and Tampa Bay are sitting on better odds. And when it comes to Stanley Cup chances?
The Penguins are at 4.8%. Only the Hurricanes, Lightning, and Edmonton Oilers (at 5%) are ahead.
That’s not smoke and mirrors - that’s a team building a real case.
And those numbers don’t even capture the full picture.
This group has depth - real, four-line, multi-pairing, reliable depth. The Penguins have the third-best goal differential in the East at plus-23, and seventh-best in the league.
They’re 10th in team goaltending, which means they’re getting quality play in net without leaning too heavily on it. Their PDO sits at 100.54 - dead in the middle of the league - which tells us this isn’t about puck luck.
This is sustainable.
The veterans are doing what they’ve always done - leading. But what’s really pushing this team forward is the emergence of the next wave.
Forwards Ben Kindel and Rutger McGroarty are showing they belong. Goaltender Arturs Silovs is giving them strong minutes.
And the players GM Kyle Dubas took a chance on - defensemen Parker Wotherspoon and Ryan Shea, forwards Justin Brazeau, Egor Chinakhov, and Connor Dewar - are all contributing in meaningful ways. This isn’t just a top-heavy team.
This is a team that can roll all four lines and trust every pairing.
Right now, they’re on pace to finish with 103 points. They’re tracking toward seven players with 20-plus goals and 10 players with 40 or more points.
That’s not just depth - that’s balance. And balance is what wins in the postseason.
So yes, the schedule gets tougher in March. Yes, they’ll face some of the league’s best down the stretch. But if they pick up where they left off before the Olympic break - and maybe add a piece at the deadline, even a small one - this team has the look of a legitimate contender.
It’s time to stop asking if the Penguins can make the playoffs. That conversation’s already shifting.
The real question now is: can they win the East? And if they keep playing like this, they just might.