Kyle Dubas keeps using the same word for the Penguins’ future: sustainability. And that’s really the heart of where this rebuild stands right now.
Pittsburgh has a clear split in its roster - established stars who have lasted far beyond the usual shelf life, and a younger group under 25 that still hasn’t hit its ceiling. What the Penguins don’t have is the middle ground, and that’s the hole Dubas is trying to patch, likely with at least one splash on the NHL trade market.
That approach has already given this rebuild a different feel. Rather than leaning only on the draft and waiting patiently, the Penguins have moved more aggressively, taking swings on young players with some risk attached.
It has helped speed things up. But the next question is the big one: when does all of this actually start to look like a real rise?
One way to frame it is through age. Players generally hit their best stretch and stay within about 10% of that level from ages 24 to 28.
On the Penguins’ young side, only Egor Chinakhov is entering that window. Everyone else is still climbing, and for most of them, NHL experience is still part of the development equation.
Ben Kindel got a head start by making the big club at 18, but the rest of the young core is still in various stages of trying to establish itself. Rutger McGroarty, Ville Koivunen, Tristan Broz, Owen Pickering and Avery Hayes are the names on deck this season, with some very different levels of urgency attached to them.
Pickering has the most breathing room, though that can disappear quickly if his late-season momentum fades. Koivunen has the least margin for error because he remains an unsigned restricted free agent and is no longer waivers-exempt.
If Koivunen doesn’t make the Penguins’ NHL roster this fall, there’s a real chance he ends up elsewhere. That lines up with Dubas’s postseason admission that he and his staff knew not every prospect would stick.
McGroarty, Pickering and Broz are entering the kind of season that can define how the organization views them. They don’t necessarily have to lock down full-time NHL jobs to stay in the long-term picture, but they do need to show the Penguins that the patience is paying off and that they’ll be ready by 2027-28. The expectation here is not perfection, but progress - enough to prove they belong somewhere in the future.
There’s also another wave coming on defense. Declan Carlile and Kaedan Korczak were brought in, one through free agency and one by trade, to take on more visible roles on the blue line.
They’re both still questions, though, much like Parker Wotherspoon and Ryan Shea before them. The Penguins would love it if those players all turned into reliable answers, but that’s not the likeliest outcome.
Harrison Brunicke is a different kind of case. At 20, he’s already a couple of years ahead of schedule and should help at the NHL level this season. Because he played only nine NHL games last season, the first year of his entry-level contract slides to this season, so 2026-27 becomes the first year of that deal.
Behind that immediate group sits the 2025 draft class, and that’s where the longer wait really begins. From the top names like Bill Zonnon and Will Horcoff to the possible hidden gems such as Ryan Miller and Charlie Trethewey, it’s probably at least two years before they reach the NHL. For the Ruck twins, it may be three or four years before Penguins fans are seeing them on NHL ice.
So yes, the pipeline is coming. It just isn’t arriving all at once.
The real prospect wave likely doesn’t start until 2028, and even then, it will take a few more years for those players to settle into their best form. The Penguins are building on firmer ground now, but the organization is still about two years away from having the kind of talent that can fill top-six roles.
In the meantime, they should stay competitive as the current group settles in - and as Dubas keeps working the trade market. How bold those moves are, and what Pittsburgh gives up to make them, will shape the expectations from here.
In Other News...
Penguins Offseason Suddenly Hinges On One Outside Decision
For a Penguins offseason that already feels like it is being shaped from the outside, the most interesting part may be how much of the conversation still runs through Kyle Dubas. The organizations prospect pipeline has been painted in a fairly rosy light, with the kind of top-five, top-20 and honorable-mention chatter that suggests there is real depth coming, but the bigger question is how that young talent fits into whatever Dubas is trying to build next.
Even as the front office gets nudged in one direction and seems to want to go another, the Penguins are waiting on decisions and dominoes elsewhere in the league that could change the market around them. That is the tension of this stretch for Pittsburgh: the future looks better on paper than it has in a while, but the path to getting there still depends on choices being made far beyond the South Side. [Read more 🡒]
Penguins Offseason Has Fans Asking If This Roster Got Any Better
The Penguins spent the offseason adding Hendrix Lapierre, Kaden Korczak, Nick Robertson, Trevor van Riemsdyk, Andrei Kuzmenko and Declan Carlile, but the flurry of moves has not exactly produced an easy answer on whether the roster is better. There is some upside in the group, and some of the additions come with clear appeal, yet the bigger picture still comes back to fit, role clarity and whether the club paid enough or too much for what it got.
Lapierre came at a premium despite limited NHL offense, Kuzmenko is the kind of one-year swing that can look smart or risky depending on health, and the defense picture remains messy. Pittsburgh has a crowded right side, van Riemsdyk fits there more naturally, and Korczak only adds to the uncertainty about how the left side is going to sort itself out once camp gets going. [Read more 🡒]