Penguins Playoff Hopes Ride On One Risky Balance

With a promising offense but potential defensive weaknesses and increased competition, the Penguins face an uncertain path towards the playoffs this season.

Unless a team is in the middle of a full-scale teardown, the NHL’s baseline expectation is simple: get into the playoffs and give yourself a shot at the Stanley Cup. That’s been the balancing act for the Penguins under POHO/GM Kyle Dubas, too - building for now while still loading up on picks and prospects for later.

With the roster largely settled, the real question is staring everyone in the face: will the Penguins make the playoffs?

There are strong arguments on both sides, starting with the obvious one in their favor. Offense should not be the problem.

As long as Sidney Crosby, Evgeni Malkin, Bryan Rust and Rickard Rakell stay close to form and avoid a major drop-off, Pittsburgh has enough firepower to score. Egor Chinakhov, with his wicked shot and lightning release, looks ready to keep growing into a dangerous finisher.

Nicholas Robertson could be in line for a Chinny-esque breakout depending on how he’s used. Andrei Kuzmenko, who owns a 20.4 career shooting percentage, could top last season’s 13 goals if he gets enough power-play time.

Even super rookie Ben Kindel might build on his 17-goal season.

Dan Muse and his staff also earned plenty of credit last season. They did a terrific job with the group they had, creating a positive setting that allowed players to flourish.

Noel Acciari, Justin Brazeau, Connor Dewar, Anthony Mantha, Tommy Novak, Ryan Shea, Parker Wotherspoon and Chinakhov all turned in career years or something close to it. The core forwards kept producing, and Erik Karlsson delivered a brilliant bounce-back season from the blue line.

But that picture has changed: four of those players are gone, and Brazeau does not appear to have a clear spot.

The concerns are piling up, though, and defense is near the top of the list. Dubas revamped the right side while thinning out an already fragile left side so much that 35-year-old right-shot veteran Trevor van Riemsdyk could be asked to fill a spot on the left. It’s also uncertain whether newcomers Kaedan Korczak and fringe defenseman Declan Carlile can replace what Shea and Wotherspoon provided after both took major career steps forward last season.

Chemistry is another issue. Last year’s roster was a strange mix of established stars, young players and veterans with something to prove, but it came together beautifully on the way to a second-place finish in the Metro.

The group had a real all-for-one feel, the kind that brought to mind the original Vegas “Misfits” team from 2017-18. Dubas has turned the lineup over again this summer, and the question is whether the new pieces can blend as smoothly as the ones from a year ago.

IMHO, they’ll be hard-pressed to do so.

Physicality has also taken a hit. For a stretch, the Penguins had a lineup that could stand up for itself.

Now some of the tougher bodies are gone, including Acciari, Mantha, Wotherspoon, defenseman Connor Clifton and heavyweight Boko Imama. That leaves Pittsburgh a little light in the scrap and aggression department at a time when teams like the Capitals and Panthers are adding more size and muscle.

Then there’s age, which eventually catches every team, no matter how good the core has been. The warning signs are already showing with Kris Letang, who went through a difficult season in ’25-26.

Crosby is in that conversation too, even if he was dealing with a lower-body injury for much of the stretch. Starting on January 25, he managed only two goals and 17 points over his final 18 regular-season games, finishing minus-4.

His production started to dip before the Olympics and the Radko Gudas hit.

The competition around them doesn’t make things any easier. The Devils, Flyers, Rangers and especially the Caps - all below Pittsburgh in the Metro last season - are expected to be better.

So are the Panthers and Leafs in the Atlantic. That tighter race could push the Penguins out of a playoff spot.

After weighing it all, the outlook isn’t encouraging. Coming off last season, I hate to say it, but I’m not seeing a playoff team here. And if that proves true, it could open the door to a deadline sell-off involving Karlsson, Kuzmenko, Rakell, Rust and even van Riemsdyk.

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