The Pittsburgh Penguins didn’t just dodge Nick Robertson’s arbitration hearing on Tuesday. They also sent a pretty clear message about what they think he can become.
Robertson and the Penguins agreed to a two-year contract worth an average annual value of $3.25 million, giving the 24-year-old a sizable bump from the $1.82 million cap hit he carried with the Toronto Maple Leafs last season.
For Kyle Dubas, this is familiar territory. He drafted Robertson in the second round of the 2019 NHL draft, and now, as Pittsburgh’s general manager, he’s betting that the winger still has another level to reach. Robertson put up career-best numbers last season with 16 goals and 16 assists for 32 points in 78 games, and the Penguins are paying for that upside.
The contract also tells you something about how Pittsburgh sees his role. That kind of money doesn’t usually go to a player parked in the press box as the 13th forward, even with the salary cap climbing.
If the Penguins had viewed him as nothing more than a depth winger, they could have gone shorter or cheaper. Instead, they locked him in before the hearing at a number that points to real minutes ahead.
Robertson’s career line is respectable enough to make the gamble easy to understand. In 234 NHL games, he has 48 goals, 40 assists and 88 points, with a career shooting percentage of 12.5. He’s done it while averaging just 11:52 of ice time, which has kept him in bottom-six territory for most of his career.
That limited usage is part of the story. Robertson has rarely been given steady top-six run or meaningful power-play chances, and he spent much of his time in Toronto behind established wingers like Matthew Knies, William Nylander and Mitch Marner. Even after Marner’s departure, Gavin McKenna is expected to take on a prominent role on the wing.
The numbers don’t scream star, but they do hint at a player who has been efficient with what he’s been given. His 5-on-5 goals per 60 minutes last season sat at 0.96, according to Natural Stat Trick, a strong finishing rate considering how little he played.
That’s the kind of profile Dubas has been chasing more and more. Pittsburgh has leaned into younger players who have NHL talent but haven’t found a stable home elsewhere, rather than paying premium prices in free agency. Justin Brazeau came in from Boston looking for a bigger opportunity, and Egor Chinakhov arrived as another swing on a winger whose development had stalled in Ohio’s capital city.
As of this way-too-early off-season projection, Robertson is expected to land on the third line alongside Ben Kindel and Andrei Kuzmenko.
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