Kyle Dubas took a big swing on Ville Koivunen this past summer, and the Penguins won’t need a superstar outcome for the bet to pay off.
Pittsburgh handed Koivunen an eight-year, $32MM extension after a summer in which Dubas came up empty on nearly every major trade and free-agent target. The move raised eyebrows immediately.
Koivunen had just two goals and five assists in 39 NHL games last season, which made the length and timing of the deal look unusual, if not flat-out reckless to some. Still, Dubas framed it as a wager on upside, and Koivunen’s work in the AHL gave the Penguins something to latch onto: 41 points in 34 games, plus the kind of swagger that made him a nuisance in a top-six role.
For now, the contract sits in that uneasy space between punchline and triumph. Two weeks ago, it looked like a mistake.
Then Koivunen put together a couple of solid games and capped that stretch with an overtime winner against Nashville on Saturday night. That doesn’t settle anything, but it does give the Penguins a reason to keep watching.
There are really three ways this can go from here. The first is the dream scenario for Pittsburgh: Koivunen blossoms, the contract looks like a bargain, and other teams start chasing the same kind of early extension for prospects with upside.
The second is the obvious danger - the deal becomes a warning sign, the kind of move front offices point to when they decide not to get too aggressive with unproven players. The third is the middle ground, where Koivunen settles in as a bottom-six NHL forward and depth scorer.
That outcome wouldn’t be a disaster, but it probably wouldn’t match the Penguins’ best internal hopes either.
If Koivunen really does become a bargain, the ripple effect could be real. The NHL doesn’t usually hand out max-term contracts to players with limited experience, especially not to someone who entered the year as more of a tweener than a proven NHL piece.
Pittsburgh may not be the first club to lock up a young player long term, but this kind of gamble - especially on a borderline AHL player - would be a different level. Washington gave Ryan Leonard a long-term deal, and Anaheim did the same with Tristan Luneau, but both were already NHL players.
Koivunen was not in that category.
That’s what makes the Penguins’ bet so striking. The idea is simple: buy out prime seasons at a manageable cap hit and hope the player turns into a real NHL contributor.
Teams with strong scouting departments might be especially tempted if they believe their own projections more than the market does. And the NHL, as always, tends to copy whatever works.
If it doesn’t work, though, the lesson will be just as loud. One failed deal won’t rewrite league thinking, but it would give GMs a reason to hesitate before committing big long-term money to young forwards with more promise than proof.
Most teams also aren’t operating under the same pressure Dubas faces in Pittsburgh, trying to stay competitive around an older core while still building for what comes next. That balancing act has already pushed the Penguins into some unconventional territory.
The timeline for a verdict isn’t that long. The next two years should tell the story, and the deal will be a win if Koivunen becomes a top-nine forward who can chip in scoring throughout the contract.
Anything more than that would be a bonus. If he stalls out as a borderline NHLer, Pittsburgh could be staring at a bust - and potentially a buyout of the final six years at 1/3 the salary, which would create a 12-year buyout.
The good news for the Penguins is that Koivunen doesn’t have to become a star for this to make sense. At a $4MM AAV, the bar is lower than that.
If he sticks and produces, Pittsburgh will have done more than help itself. It may also have handed the rest of the league a new template for how to treat unproven young forwards.
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Penguins Slow Start Could Force A Kris Letang Decision
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Kris Letang sits at the center of that possibility because of what he means to the franchise and because moving him would not be simple. His contract and full no-trade clause give him significant control over his future, so any discussion there would be more complicated than a normal deadline phone call, especially if the Penguins keep drifting in the wrong direction. [Read more 🡒]