Penguins Face A New Scoring Hope And A Huge Karlsson Debate

Get ready for a rollercoaster season as bold forecasts suggest unexpected breakout stars and strategic moves might just steer the Pittsburgh Penguins toward playoff success.

This is the kind of Penguins season that could tilt in a hurry, and a lot of it starts with the same idea: there are enough wild cards here to change the whole shape of the year.

Nicholas Robertson is the first one. The fit is obvious on paper, and it’s easy to see why the Penguins wanted him.

He has the age profile they’re chasing, the speed they want in the lineup, and a track record of producing well for the minutes he’s been given early in his career. He also looks positioned for a real opportunity next to Sidney Crosby and Rickard Rakell, which is exactly the kind of runway that can turn a useful player into a breakout one.

That breakout, in this view, comes with real numbers attached. Robertson’s career high is 16 goals, but that comes with some important context: he has played more than 70 games only once and has never averaged more than 12 minutes of ice time per game.

His work has mostly come at 5-on-5, and he still finds ways to score. Over the last three seasons, among 414 forwards with at least 1,000 minutes of 5-on-5 play, Robertson’s 1.09 goals per 60 minutes ranks 28th.

The names ahead of him are mostly first-line types and proven producers. He also gets there without a fluky shot profile, averaging 8.29 shots on goal per 60 minutes, which ranks 52nd in that same group.

The bet here is that the rate stats become box-score production, and that Robertson turns into a long-term piece.

The same general logic applies to Egor Chinakhov, only with a little more upside. The prediction here is that he doesn’t just build on the breakout half-season he had in 2025-26, he climbs all the way to the top of the Penguins’ goal list.

Pittsburgh has had a different leading scorer in each of the last four seasons - Jake Guentzel, Sidney Crosby, Rickard Rakell and Anthony Mantha - and Chinakhov is the next name being slotted into that rotation. He was one of the biggest surprises of last season, and the expectation is that the fresh start and new environment help him keep rising.

The move that feels most likely to come later is Erik Karlsson getting dealt. That would not be the easiest thing for a locker room trying to stay in the race, because Karlsson would still matter a lot to this team.

But the reasoning is simple: it is hard to see a realistic path to re-signing a defenseman who will soon be 37, even if the Penguins still think of themselves as a playoff club. A Karlsson trade also feels more valuable than the Anthony Mantha situation did a year ago, when Pittsburgh chose not to move him at the deadline and then lost him in free agency.

Mantha was a useful scorer, but the kind of return he would have brought probably did not match the production he could still provide. Karlsson is a different asset entirely.

Even in his mid-to-late 30s, a top-pairing defenseman should bring back more. That said, a Karlsson move would not have to mean a full teardown.

It could come alongside another deal that brings in a younger NHL defenseman with real upside.

In net, Sergei Murashov is the name that could swing everything. He and, to a degree, Arturs Silovs represent the biggest X-factors on the roster, but Murashov is the one with the power to change the season.

Goalies can do that. Good ones can drag a team over the line, especially a team living on the playoff bubble.

Murashov has the talent, the athleticism and the ceiling, and he has already performed at every level he has played in North America. The problem is the position itself: no spot in hockey is more volatile or harder to project.

The expectation here is that there will be some growing pains, maybe even a fair amount of them, but that by the end of the season he will look like the clear starter and a very good one at that.

And with enough scoring, enough goaltending and a division that feels wide open after Carolina and Washington, the Penguins just might sneak into the playoffs. That would not guarantee anything beyond that, but it would be enough to make the season interesting in a hurry.

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