Erik Karlsson’s future in Pittsburgh is already one of the biggest storylines hanging over the Penguins this season, and the possibilities stretch in a few very different directions.
Karlsson is entering the final year of his eight-year, $92MM contract, and he’s coming off his strongest season since arriving in Pittsburgh. The three-time Norris Trophy winner put up 66 points in 75 games last year, and the Penguins leaned on him heavily when Sidney Crosby and Evgeni Malkin were out after the Olympics. In a season where he was clearly the team’s best player, Karlsson carried a huge load.
For now, though, nothing has been decided. No contract talks have happened yet between Karlsson and the Penguins, and the sense from the outside is that everyone involved understands how delicate the situation is. Pittsburgh has a mix of older and younger players, and this year could go a long way toward shaping what the roster looks like moving forward.
Karlsson has made it clear he’s comfortable in Pittsburgh and likes being there. Kyle Dubas has said he wants to keep him beyond this season, and assistant GM Jason Spezza told Taylor Haase that the team has laid out the situation for Karlsson and is fine letting it play out.
One path is straightforward enough: the Penguins stay in the playoff mix and keep Karlsson through the season. That would make sense because he remains their top defenseman, and the blue line is already in rough shape.
It might not be the easiest message to sell to the fan base, but hanging onto a player like Karlsson while chasing a postseason spot would be defensible. If that happens, Pittsburgh would then have to decide whether to let him walk next summer for nothing or try to lock him up through 2027-28 and beyond.
Another route is an extension that keeps him in Pittsburgh long term, possibly through the rest of his career. Not long ago, that idea would have sounded far-fetched at an AAV near his current $11.5MM, but if he produces this season the way he did last year, that kind of number becomes much more realistic.
AFP Analytics projects a three-year extension at $6.6MM per year, though Karlsson could command more if he proves again that he’s still playing at a high level. Pittsburgh has the cap space, and there isn’t an obvious successor waiting in the wings when Karlsson eventually moves on.
The most likely outcome, though, may be a trade at the NHL Trade Deadline. That would fit the kind of patient approach Dubas has taken before, including the Jake Guentzel situation in 2024.
If the Penguins are out of the race by February, they could work with Karlsson on a move and turn him into future assets. His $10MM cap hit this season could complicate things, but Pittsburgh could retain part of it and market him as a top-pairing rental.
If he’s still producing at a high level, the return could be significant even with Karlsson nearing 37.
There’s also the possibility that Pittsburgh falls out of the race early and moves him before the end of 2026. That would reduce the risk of an injury, open the door for younger players, and give the Penguins more time to manage his no-movement clause and find a destination he’d accept. It could be the safer play if the season starts going sideways.
Of course, Karlsson’s own preferences may end up driving everything. If he wants out, he goes.
If he wants to stay, he signs an extension. That’s the power of the no-movement clause, and Pittsburgh will have to work within it.
However it ends, Karlsson is shaping up to be one of the most intriguing names to watch this season. He’s still an elite veteran on a team that could make the playoffs again or tumble down the Eastern Conference standings, and that combination makes his future - and the Penguins’ - impossible to ignore.
In Other News...
Penguins Camp Cuts Put Real Pressure On The Opening Night Battle
The first round of training camp cuts in Pittsburgh has already sharpened the conversation around the opening-night roster. Pittsburgh Hockey Nows latest look at the group laid out a projected lineup and noted that there could still be more movement once the season gets going, which is exactly the kind of pressure camp cuts are meant to create. For players on the bubble, every practice rep now feels a little heavier, because the margin between making the team and becoming a later-season option is starting to narrow.
The Penguins are not the only club dealing with roster and depth questions across the league, but their camp decisions carry immediate weight as the team tries to settle on its best group. With some NHL goalies available on waivers and other unsigned players still lingering on the market, the broader picture suggests there may be chances to adjust after opening night. For now, though, the focus in Pittsburgh is on who sticks, who gets sent down and which names remain in the mix if injuries or performance force a change. [Read more 🡒]
Penguins Prospect Ben Kindel Faces A Bigger Setback Than Expected
Ben Kindels first preseason game for the Penguins ended with an injury in the opening period, and the initial concern has only grown since then. What was first expected to be a shorter absence is now described as week-to-week, leaving the young center out for an undetermined stretch and putting a temporary halt to a chance to make an early impression in camp.
For an organization already balancing prospect development with the realities of its minor league pipeline, the setback comes at an inconvenient time. Pittsburgh has spent plenty of attention on making that system more functional and more competitive, even as travel issues continue to linger around the ECHL affiliates relocation, and Kindels recovery now becomes another part of a broader development picture the Penguins are trying to manage carefully. [Read more 🡒]
Penguins Opening Night Plans Already Face Another Lineup Problem
The Penguins are already juggling their lineup as opening night nears, and the latest update only adds to the uncertainty. Ben Kindel has gone from day-to-day to week-to-week after getting hurt in the first period of a preseason game, leaving the club to keep reshuffling its forward group while trying to get a read on what the fourth line might look like once the games count.
Filip Hallander, Connor Dewar and Elmer Soderblom have been skating together as a possible fourth-line combination, but the picture is still cloudy with center Blake Lizotte also sidelined on a week-to-week basis. Andrei Kuzmenko is away from the team because of a family matter, so Pittsburgh is entering the final stretch of camp with more questions than answers about how its opening-night lineup will come together. [Read more 🡒]