At the start of the season, the Pittsburgh Penguins were pegged as longshots. Odds of making the playoffs?
Just 7.6 percent. They were already being mentioned in the Gavin McKenna sweepstakes-a nod to how far expectations had fallen.
No one was betting on Pittsburgh. But that’s the thing about low expectations: they can be the perfect breeding ground for a team that’s got something brewing under the surface.
Fast forward to January 23, and the picture looks very different. The Penguins have surged to second place in the Metropolitan Division with 61 points and now boast a 74 percent chance of making the postseason.
That’s not just a turnaround-it’s a statement. They’re on pace for a 100-point season, and they’re doing it with a mix of fresh faces and a new voice behind the bench in head coach J.D.
Forrest, who’s clearly struck a chord in the locker room.
This isn’t a team riding a fluke hot streak. Pittsburgh is clicking in all three zones, showing cohesion, energy, and a sense of purpose that wasn’t there in the preseason.
The infusion of new talent-both young and experienced-has brought life to a roster that many thought was past its prime. And with 32 games still to go, there’s plenty of time for this group to solidify its identity.
How they perform heading into the Olympic break will be crucial. That stretch will give President of Hockey Ops and GM Kyle Dubas a clearer picture of what this team really is-and what it needs. The NHL Trade Deadline looms shortly after the break, and Dubas will have to decide whether to double down or pivot.
We’ve seen this kind of midseason transformation before. Just last year, the Washington Capitals flipped the script under new head coach Spencer Carbery, making a few savvy offseason moves that reignited their competitive fire.
The result? A Metro Division title and the Eastern Conference’s top regular-season record.
Dubas took a similar swing this past summer. He brought in Anthony Mantha, Justin Brazeau, Arturs Silovs, Parker Wotherspoon, and 2025 draft pick Ben Kindel to address roster gaps.
Then he added Egor Chinakhov, Stuart Skinner, and Brett Kulak-moves that blended youth and experience in a way that’s clearly paying off. These weren’t blockbuster trades, but they were the kind of smart, calculated additions that can quietly reshape a team.
What’s emerging now is a Penguins squad that’s not trying to mimic anyone else’s blueprint. They’ve carved out their own path, and they’re showing the league what can happen when the right mix of players, coaching, and front office vision comes together.
But let’s not get ahead of ourselves. Pittsburgh isn’t a lock just yet.
Their upcoming schedule is no cakewalk, and March is shaping up to be the proving ground. That’s when we’ll really see what this team is made of-whether they’re playoff-bound contenders or just a great first-half story.
And then there’s the looming question for Dubas: Does he become a soft buyer at the deadline, adding depth without mortgaging the future? Or does he take a more conservative route, moving pending UFAs to stockpile draft capital for the long run?
Either way, the Penguins have already flipped the narrative. What started as a season with nothing to lose has turned into one with everything on the line-and a team that suddenly looks ready to chase it.