The Penguins’ blue line looks different after a busy summer, but different doesn’t automatically mean better. That’s the question hanging over the group now that four defensemen from last season are gone, including Ryan Shea and Parker Wotherspoon, who both handled meaningful minutes.
The roster shape has changed in a pretty clear way: Pittsburgh is deeper on the right side and noticeably thinner on the left. And when you line up the newcomers against the departures, the answer gets murkier than the front office probably hoped.
At five-on-five, the underlying numbers don’t separate the two groups by much. Declan Carlile posted a Corsi of 49.39, a shots-for percentage of 45.50, a goals-for percentage of 54.55 and an expected-goals-for percentage of 48.66.
Kaeden Korczak came in at 51.53, 53.37, 53.68 and 54.30. Trevor van Riemsdyk checked in at 47.81, 48.36, 52.56 and 50.53.
The outgoing group wasn’t far off. Ryan Clifton finished at 48.33 in Corsi, 49.67 in shots for, 53.45 in goals for and 55.15 in expected goals.
Jack St. Ivany was at 47.74, 47.47, 56.00 and 47.67.
Shea posted 49.11, 49.08, 58.33 and 51.20. Wotherspoon had the strongest overall line of the bunch at 52.14, 52.84, 54.69 and 50.91.
There’s not a huge gap there, and all seven defensemen were above 50 percent in goals-for percentage, which is the number that probably matters most. One interesting wrinkle: the two best performers in that set, Wotherspoon and Korczak, were traded for each other.
The WAR numbers tilt more toward the new arrivals. Carlile was at 62 overall, with 31 in even-strength offense and 56 in even-strength defense, and was listed as a depth defender.
Korczak was at 83 overall, with 62 in EVO and 93 in EVD, also tagged as depth. Van Riemsdyk posted 85 overall, 60 in EVO and 92 in EVD, and was listed as a third-pairing defenseman.
Among the players who left, Clifton finished at 61 overall, with 66 in offense and 64 in defense, and was listed as a third-pairing player. St.
Ivany came in at 35 overall, with 26 in offense and 64 in defense, also third pairing. Shea had 55 overall, 55 in offense and 30 in defense, and was listed as a second-pairing player.
Wotherspoon posted 78 overall, 34 in offense and 89 in defense, and was also listed as second pairing.
Traditional numbers tell a similar story, though the production gap is more obvious. Carlile played 42 games and had one goal, two assists and three points, along with a plus-5.
Korczak appeared in 78 games, scoring three goals with 13 assists for 16 points and a plus-6. Van Riemsdyk had 68 games, three goals, 11 assists and 14 points, also plus-6.
The departed group produced more. Clifton had two goals, four assists and six points in 50 games, plus-5.
St. Ivany had no goals, seven assists and seven points in 20 games, plus-4.
Shea was the big one offensively: six goals, 29 assists and 35 points in 80 games, plus-30. Wotherspoon added three goals, 27 assists and 30 points in 80 games, plus-17.
So where does that leave the Penguins? The newcomers look capable enough, especially in terms of defending, but the left side is the problem.
Right now, Sam Girard is the only established NHL left-shot defenseman on the roster, which leaves two openings. One of them will probably go to Carlile.
For the other spot, assistant GM Jason Spezza floated van Riemsdyk as a right-shot option who could play the left side. That kind of switch can work for some players, like former Penguin Trevor Daley, but not for most.
Spezza also mentioned former first-round pick Owen Pickering and even free-agent bust Ryan Graves as possible answers. Ilya Solovyov could be in the mix too, even though he wasn’t specifically named.
The bottom line is pretty plain: the defense is not as strong, and certainly not as balanced, as it was when last season ended.
If there’s a real swing to be made, Alex Nikishin is the name that stands out. Dan Kingerski of PHN originally floated the idea of Dubas going after the Hurricanes’ RFA defenseman, a mobile 6-foot-3, 218-pound all-arounder who could stabilize the left side for years.
Carolina GM Eric Tulsky has made it clear that any deal for the 24-year-old would also involve Jesperi Kotkaniemi, the Hurricanes’ version of Graves. If the price is manageable, the case is simple: go get him.
Nikishin isn’t offer-sheet eligible.
There’s also Arber Xhekaj, who could be had with an offer sheet and probably cheaply. The Canadiens’ 6-foot-4, 240-pound defenseman is not a future star, and he doesn’t fit the kind of player the Penguins usually chase. But he brings a heavy, intimidating edge the team is missing, and he grades out better as a puck mover than you might expect, especially when it comes to getting the puck out of his own end.
And if Pittsburgh wanted to get even bolder, Florian Xhekaj would be worth a look too. The younger brother is a 6-foot-3, 205-pound forward with skill and a mean streak.
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