The Penguins’ start has been ugly enough that the numbers are starting to tell a pretty blunt story.
After opening with a 7-0 rout of the Flyers and jumping to a 5-1 lead against the Canadiens in Game 2, Pittsburgh has been outscored 20-12 in non-shootout goals and has stumbled to a 3-3-1 record. Their regulation points percentage sits at .357, a figure that matches the level of play on the ice. That leaves them on the outside of the Eastern Conference playoff picture, a long way from last season’s 8-2-2 launch that helped carry them to a second-place finish in the Metro and a playoff berth.
One of the biggest issues is roster construction. POHO/GM Kyle Dubas loaded the forward group over the summer, and the Penguins opened training camp with 20 forwards who had NHL experience, almost all with a real argument for a roster spot.
That left Dan Muse and his staff trying to sort out a traffic jam that got even worse after the acquisition of Hendrix Lapierre and the signing of Andrei Kuzmenko. It also blocked the path for prospects like Rutger McGroarty and Avery Hayes.
The result has been a rotating cast, especially on the third line. Lapierre, Kuzmenko, Ville Koivunen, Elmer Söderblom and, before being traded, Filip Hållander have all been shuffled through that spot, along with Bryan Rust.
Ben Kindel has been the one steady presence. The constant movement hasn’t exactly helped the players involved, and it has also made it harder to build any real continuity.
At the top of the lineup, Muse went back to Sidney Crosby, Rickard Rakell and Rust. That trio had initially been slowed by Nick Robertson on the wing, and the coach tried to fix it by putting Rust back beside his familiar linemates.
The move produced a mixed result. Crosby snapped a four-game pointless stretch with two goals in the recent loss to Chicago, and Rakell turned in one of his better nights with four shots on goal and nine shot attempts.
Still, the underlying 5-on-5 numbers paint a less flattering picture:
Player Corsi GF% xGF%
Crosby 45.77 46.67 48.65
Rakell 48.19 50.00 48.46
Rust 42.39 42.86 38.13
Robertson 54.17 87.50 61.80
That top line is getting pushed around in possession despite favorable deployment, and Rust’s numbers are especially rough. Robertson, meanwhile, has responded to his reduced role by giving Pittsburgh a lift on the fourth line with his speed and tenacity.
That kind of spark is something the Penguins could use more of, and it’s fair to wonder whether he deserves a longer run in a more prominent spot. Hayes or Söderblom could also fill similar jobs depending on what the club wants from that line.
The power play has also fallen apart after starting 2-for-4. Since then, the Penguins have gone 0-for-16 and have looked lost trying to enter the zone, hold possession and generate anything dangerous once they set up.
When they do get organized, the puck movement leans too much toward hesitation and perimeter passing. It’s the same old frustration from 2023-24, when the unit finished at 15.3 percent.
There may also be a case for splitting Sidney Crosby and Evgeni Malkin onto different units. Egor Chinakhov, with his lightning quick release and blur of a shot, should be getting more power-play time.
Kuzmenko should, too, if he’s in the lineup. An all-comrade second unit of Malkin, Chinakhov and Kuzmenko could make sense, as long as Crosby’s group doesn’t crowd them off the ice.
Physicality is another problem that keeps showing up. The Penguins are the lightest team in the league at an average weight of 194 pounds, and they’re also dead last in hits with 83.
That lines up with what the eye test says: they look small, especially against heavier teams like the Caps. That has made it harder to win battles along the wall and in traffic, and assistant coach Todd Nelson put it plainly when asked what the power play needed to do better: “Win some puck battles,” he replied.
Adding size would help. Söderblom and Justin Brazeau, once he returns from IR, would give Pittsburgh more strength and make them tougher to play against. But the team has leaned heavily toward speed, and that’s the path it seems determined to keep following.
There’s also a chemistry issue that’s harder to pin down but impossible to ignore. Last season, the Penguins had a clear all-for-one feel.
This season, that edge has been missing. The summer changes seem to have left the group less connected, and the result is a team that looks more fragmented than the one that finished last year stronger than the sum of its parts.
Whether that can change depends on whether Dubas and the coaching staff are willing to make hard decisions, even if they upset some of the veterans.
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Ville Koivunen remains one of the names worth watching as the Penguins keep evaluating the bottom and middle of the lineup, and his place is not locked in as the games get tougher. The addition of Ryan Johnson was meant to help fortify the blue line, so these next stops on the trip should tell a lot about how the team wants to balance development, depth and immediate needs as the roster battle continues. [Read more 🡒]
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The Penguins power play has gone cold at an awkward time, sliding to 0-for-16 after a strong start and forcing the club to devote a chunk of practice in Chicago to cleaning it up. Dan Muse spent the session working through adjustments, a sign that the issue has become more than a short-term blip and is now something the coaching staff feels it has to address directly.
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Erik Karlsson Just Became A Penguins Question Fans Cant Ignore
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For the Penguins, the question is less about whether Karlsson still matters and more about what kind of team they will be by the time the market starts to tighten. If Pittsburgh stays in the thick of the playoff chase, there is a path for this to remain a hockey decision rather than a transaction one. But if the standings slide and the deadline picture changes, Karlsson becomes the kind of storyline that can follow a club for months before reaching a resolution. [Read more 🡒]