The Phoenix Suns weren’t supposed to be in this position. Not this soon.
Not with a retooled roster, a new head coach, and a Western Conference that feels like a nightly gauntlet. But here they are-10 games over .500, sitting at 27-17, and firmly in the thick of the playoff conversation.
Let’s be clear: there’s still a long road ahead. But the fact that the Suns are currently the 5-seed in the West, just a half-game ahead of the Lakers and Timberwolves and tied (though trailing in the tiebreaker) with Houston for the 4-seed, is a testament to how far this group has come under Jordan Ott. This team has found its identity-and it looks nothing like last year’s version.
A New Identity, A Real Shot
Jordan Ott has this team playing with purpose. There’s a sense of cohesion, of buy-in.
The Suns aren’t just surviving-they’re competing. And they’re doing it with a style that’s far more balanced and defensively sound than what we’ve seen in recent years.
The front office laid out a vision over the offseason that, frankly, raised some eyebrows. But so far?
They’ve delivered. The Suns are playing like a team that believes in itself, and that belief is starting to show up in the standings.
Now, the question becomes: How far can they take this?
First Things First: Lock In a Spot
Before we start projecting playoff matchups and dreaming about home-court advantage, it’s important to remember the stakes. The Western Conference is a knife fight.
One bad week can drop a team from a top-6 seed into the play-in. One hot streak can catapult them into home-court territory.
Every game matters.
Phoenix has a slight scheduling advantage at the moment-they’ve played a couple more games than most of their Western rivals. That gives them a chance to bank some wins while others play catch-up. The upcoming five-game stretch features mostly Eastern Conference opponents, which could be a golden opportunity to solidify their spot.
But nothing is guaranteed. Just making the playoffs outright-avoiding the play-in altogether-has to be Priority One.
Who’s the Best (and Worst) First-Round Draw?
Assuming the Suns secure a top-6 seed, the next question becomes: who do they want to see in the first round-and who should they try to avoid?
Let’s start with the team you absolutely don’t want to face early: the Oklahoma City Thunder. Not only are they the best team in the West right now, but if you’re playing them, it likely means you slipped into the play-in and had to claw your way into the 8-seed. That’s not a path Phoenix wants to take.
OKC isn’t unbeatable, but they’re deep, young, and relentless. And their home crowd turns up the volume in the postseason. Best to stay on the opposite side of the bracket entirely.
Denver? They’re still Denver.
Nikola Jokic continues to be the most unguardable player in the league, and once they’re at full strength, they’re going to be a problem for anyone. The Nuggets may not be dominating the regular season the way some expected, but don’t let that fool you-they’re still a title contender.
Houston is an interesting case. The Suns have had their struggles against the Rockets this season, though injuries have played a role on both sides.
Their roster is loaded with long, athletic wings and versatile forwards-exactly the kind of lineup that can give Phoenix trouble. Still, the Suns have shown they can hang with Houston, and a recent loss came down to a Kevin Durant buzzer-beater.
Not ideal, but not terrifying either.
Then there’s San Antonio. The Spurs are no pushover-they’ve got a unique mix of size, speed, and guard depth.
But they’re also young and largely untested in the postseason. Jordan Ott has done a great job game-planning for Victor Wembanyama, and Phoenix has shown they can make life difficult for the Spurs’ rising star.
Of the four potential matchups, this one feels the most manageable.
Ranking the Potential First-Round Opponents (from toughest to most favorable):
- Oklahoma City Thunder - Avoid at all costs.
If you’re facing them, something went wrong. 2.
Denver Nuggets - Jokic is still Jokic. Enough said.
- Houston Rockets - Tough matchup, but not insurmountable.
- San Antonio Spurs - Talented but inexperienced.
A winnable series.
Of course, Minnesota and the Lakers are still very much in the mix, and depending on how the standings shake out, they could end up being first-round opponents as well. But for now, the focus has to be on continuing to stack wins and controlling what you can control.
The Road Ahead
These next few weeks are going to be telling. The standings are packed tighter than a playoff crowd at Footprint Center, and every night feels like it carries postseason weight. Whether the Suns can separate themselves from the play-in pack or get caught in the traffic jam will depend on how they handle this stretch.
What’s clear is this: Phoenix is no longer just trying to stay afloat. They’re in the mix.
They’re playing with confidence. And if they keep this up, they’re going to be a team no one wants to face come April.
The Suns are playing with house money-but they’re also playing with purpose. And that makes them dangerous.