Mat Ishbia isn’t backing down from the idea that the Phoenix Suns can win a playoff series this season. And after years of disappointment, that confidence is starting to feel like more than just noise.
Ishbia has been here before. When The Ringer pegged the Suns’ defense to land at the bottom of the league to begin the 2025-26 season, he pushed back hard.
Phoenix answered with a top-10 finish in defensive rating, and now the question is whether that same edge can carry over into the postseason. The real test, though, may come down to a simple one: who’s on the other side of the bracket?
Against the Thunder, the outlook is bleak. Oklahoma City is the model Phoenix is trying to build toward, and last year’s playoffs showed exactly how they can bend a series with aggressive perimeter pressure, active hands and the turnovers that turn into huge runs.
That kind of pressure is what the Suns say they want to become over the remaining years of Booker’s contract, but this season still looks too soon. If Phoenix wants to avoid a first-round exit, the play-in and Oklahoma City are the teams it has to dodge.
Prediction: Suns 0, Thunder 4.
The Spurs offer a tougher conversation. The Suns have handled them well in preseason, but Victor Wembanyama changes everything when he’s on the floor.
The idea here is that containing him takes a toll, and the rest of San Antonio’s group - Castle, Harper, Fox, and the refs - makes life hard enough to swing the series. Even so, Phoenix is expected to steal two games in a six-game fight.
Prediction: Suns 2, Spurs 4. There’s one major caveat, though: if Wemby is unavailable, the script flips sharply.
In that version, it becomes Suns 4, Spurs 1.
Houston looks even less inviting. The Rockets bring athletic perimeter defenders, interior size and the kind of late-game shotmaking that can close a playoff game.
Phoenix lost all four regular-season meetings with Houston last season, and the matchup problems go beyond just one bad stretch. Both teams are banking on continuity and better health after disappointing finishes, but Houston still feels like one of the worst possible postseason draws for the Suns.
Prediction: Suns 1, Rockets 4.
Denver, by contrast, is where optimism starts to creep in. Nikola Jokic remains the problem every team has to solve, but the Suns believe they’ll have more answers this time with Maluach and possibly a healthy Mark Williams giving them length and strength inside.
The idea is that Phoenix’s more physical defense can make Denver work for everything, even if Jokic still tilts the floor. The catch is that the Suns would need role players to deliver big numbers, especially when Jokic sits, and altitude only makes the assignment harder.
That’s why this is framed as a series Phoenix can win if it lands in the right seeding range. Prediction: Suns 4, Nuggets 3.
The Lakers are another matchup where Phoenix’s path looks real. They’re still ironing out the details as they adjust to life after Bron, and there are questions about how well their starting guards hold up defensively.
The Booker/Green backcourt could pressure even strong defensive groups, and Luka Doncic is the kind of offensive force that makes clean answers difficult to find. Still, if the Suns can sneak into the 5 or 6 seed, this is viewed as a better path than Houston or Denver.
Prediction: Suns 4, Lakers 3.
Then there’s Minnesota, which stands out as the cleanest road to validating Ishbia’s confidence. The Suns moved off the size that made the Timberwolves such a difficult matchup, betting instead on Lamelo becoming something he hasn’t shown in the NBA: a winner.
If Minnesota survives the regular season without completely unraveling, the Suns are expected to handle them in the first round. Prediction: Suns 4, Timberwolves 1.
There are still plenty of moving parts before the bracket is set. The Jazz or Trail Blazers could even crash the top 6 and change the picture entirely.
But the core point remains the same: Ishbia’s belief matters because this is not the same 45-win team from last season, and he didn’t make this kind of declaration then. He may always be confident, but the confidence usually comes with a plan.
If he says it will happen, the line here is that there’s a 60 percent chance it does. That’s a number.
In Other News...
Ryan Dunn Is Forcing A Tough Suns Decision Before Opening Night
Ryan Dunn has spent the preseason making it harder for the Suns to keep thinking of him as just a defense-first project. The third-year wing has earned steady praise from teammates and coaches for sharper defensive awareness and a more efficient offensive game, the kind of incremental growth that tends to matter in late roster discussions more than eye-catching scoring totals. Even with modest production in the box score, Dunns improved consistency has put him squarely in the mix for one of the final wing spots as Phoenix gets closer to opening night.
Rookie Rasheer Fleming is part of the same conversation, and that only sharpens the decision facing the Suns staff. Dunns case is built on versatility and the value of a player who can help without needing the ball, which is exactly the sort of profile coaches tend to trust when roster spots get tight. For a team trying to sort out its final pieces before the season begins, the choice is less about potential in the abstract and more about which wing can best fill a real role from day one. [Read more 🡒]
Dillon Brooks Just Added More Heat To The Suns Culture Reset
Dillon Brooks has wasted little time making himself part of Phoenixs latest tone shift. After another strong preseason stretch that included notable scoring bursts, Brooks took to Instagram to thank Suns owner Matt Ishbia for speaking candidly about the teams past locker room issues, a post that fit neatly into the broader reset Phoenix is trying to sell around its culture.
The message also carried a pointed edge, with Brooks taking a jab at former Suns star Kevin Durant just as Ishbia and Durant have been trading public remarks about the franchises old roster construction and internal dynamics. For a Suns team trying to draw a cleaner line between what came before and what comes next, Brooks is already acting like someone eager to help define the new era, even if the lingering tension around the old one is still very much in the background. [Read more 🡒]
Suns Face An Oso Ighodaro Decision With Bigger Rotation Stakes
Oso Ighodaros rise into the Suns frontcourt conversation has taken on a new layer, with the second-year big confirming his camp is in discussions with Phoenix about a possible contract extension. Drafted in 2024 and already on a four-year deal, Ighodaro has moved from prospect to a real part of the roster picture as he competes for a starting spot after a teammates injury.
The timing gives the Suns something bigger to weigh than just another contract negotiation. Ighodaro is extension-eligible this league year, and the deadline for including his fourth-year option is creeping closer, which puts the front office in a position to decide how much it wants to commit while the rotation is still taking shape. The expectation is that talks will center on a likely three-year extension, a sign that both sides may be trying to lock in a role before the seasons bigger decisions arrive. [Read more 🡒]