Tarik Skubal just changed the game-literally and financially.
The Detroit Tigers’ ace, and two-time reigning Cy Young winner, made history with a jaw-dropping $32 million salary awarded in arbitration. That figure doesn’t just reset the market-it detonates it. Skubal’s win over the Tigers in the arbitration room doesn’t just put more money in his pocket; it reshapes how front offices across the league will approach high-end starting pitching, especially when it comes to young arms with sky-high ceilings.
And that brings us to Philadelphia.
Enter Andrew Painter, the Phillies’ 22-year-old phenom-in-waiting. Drafted in the first round back in 2021, Painter shot up prospect boards after a dominant 2022, carving up older competition with the kind of poise and stuff that had scouts buzzing about ace potential.
But like many young pitchers, his path hit a detour-Tommy John surgery in 2023 sidelined him for most of two seasons. He returned last year and, understandably, showed some rust, posting a 5.40 ERA across 22 starts at Triple-A.
Still, the belief in Painter hasn’t wavered. The Phillies remain high on his upside, and there’s a real chance he breaks camp in the big-league rotation-or at the very least, makes his MLB debut early in the season. If he performs anywhere near expectations, the conversation in Philly will quickly shift from “when” to “how long”-as in, how long can the team keep him in red pinstripes?
That’s where Skubal’s precedent becomes more than just a headline.
If Painter blossoms into a frontline starter, the Phillies will face a critical decision: lock him up early with a long-term extension or ride out the standard MLB service time structure. That means three years at or near the league minimum, followed by three years of arbitration. And thanks to Skubal’s $32 million win, those arbitration years just got a whole lot more expensive-especially the third one.
Let’s break that down. Arbitration isn’t a negotiation in the traditional sense.
When a player and team can’t agree on a salary, both sides submit a number, and a panel of arbitrators picks one-no middle ground. Skubal’s case was a standoff: the Tigers offered $19 million, just shy of David Price’s 2015 record for an arbitration-eligible pitcher.
Skubal’s camp countered with an eye-popping $32 million, topping Juan Soto’s previous high-water mark of $31 million for any arbitration-eligible player, regardless of position.
The arbitrators sided with Skubal.
That decision doesn’t just reward one of the game’s best arms-it sets a precedent. Arbitration cases lean heavily on comparables, and now that $32 million is the new top-end benchmark, it becomes a target for future stars entering their final arbitration year. If Painter becomes the ace the Phillies hope he is, and he doesn’t sign an extension, Philly could be staring down a similar salary figure by the time he reaches that point.
Of course, that’s a big “if.” Painter still needs to stay healthy, continue developing, and prove he can thrive against big-league hitters over multiple seasons.
But if he does? The Phillies may want to get ahead of the curve.
Because the cost of elite starting pitching isn’t just rising-it’s accelerating. And thanks to Skubal, the next wave of top arms now has a new number to aim for.
Painter’s future remains unwritten, but the blueprint for what it could cost is suddenly a lot clearer.