The Phillies’ rotation took a hit at exactly the wrong time.
Jesús Luzardo is going on the injured list after shoulder soreness kept him from making his weekend start, and the timing makes the situation far more complicated than a simple short-term absence. Because he won’t be eligible to return until the final day of the regular season, there’s no path for a rehab assignment before he could come back.
“Big development: Phillies are putting Jesús Luzardo on the IL. He was not feeling as well as they expected today.
The rest is very much unsure. They are not ruling him out for potential postseason start, Don Mattingly said.”
That leaves the Phillies with a lot less certainty around one of the arms that has helped define their season. Luzardo had just thrown a dominant shutout against the Atlanta Braves before being scratched from his next start, and he said at the time the move was precautionary because the shoulder soreness would not go away. He also said he would have pitched if the game carried higher stakes.
Now the stakes are much higher.
For much of the year, the Phillies’ case as a serious October threat has rested on the strength of their rotation. Luzardo, Christopher Sánchez, and Zack Wheeler formed the kind of top-end trio that could stack up with anyone in baseball, and it also gave Philadelphia a real edge in a best-of-three Wild Card Round.
That edge is thinner now.
Mattingly still left open the possibility that Luzardo could pitch in the postseason, but that is a tricky path for a pitcher with a recent history of back and elbow injuries. If he does make it back, the most realistic scenario would be a Game 3 start in the Wild Card Round. Even then, it’s fair to wonder how much confidence the Phillies can place in a starter who could go nearly a month without pitching before a sudden-death game.
Philadelphia may not have many cleaner answers. Aaron Nola has been much better since the All-Star break, posting a 3.08 ERA in 64.1 innings, though opponents are still hitting him for a .765 OPS. Andrew Painter has generally looked strong since the start of August, but he’s still capable of the kind of rough outing that can end a season in a hurry.
Those two, plus an offense that appears to have settled in after the trade deadline, will need to carry a heavier load while Luzardo is out. Tim Mayza filled in for Luzardo’s scratched start in what became a bullpen game, and the Phillies were hammered 12-2.
For now, the best the Phillies can do is wait and hope Luzardo is healthy by October. Even if this ends up costing them home-field advantage in the first round, having him available may matter more than anything else once the playoffs begin.
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Relief markets are always part performance, part timing, and the Phillies are already facing the sort of hindsight that comes with every bullpen deal. Erik Miller, Luke Weaver and Tyler Wells all drew attention as alternatives because they were available and pitching well this season, which only sharpens the questions around Philadelphias choice. The season is still unfolding, but the early returns have made this one deadline call look far less certain than it did on paper. [Read more 🡒]