The Phillies may be limping into October, but this matchup with the Braves is not nearly as lopsided as the recent skid suggests.
Opta Analyst has Philadelphia with the worst odds of any MLB playoff team to win the World Series, even behind the 81-81 Astros, the only team to reach the postseason with a record at or below .500 in a full season. That kind of outlook would normally scream disaster. Instead, it leaves the Phillies in a strange spot: low expectations, limited attention, and a chance to play loose after a September in which they didn’t win a single series.
The Braves are hardly rolling either. They’ve gone 49-47 since June 9 and played .500 baseball in September after a scorching start that made them look like an offensive machine.
That attack has cooled off badly. Since August 1, Atlanta has posted a .694 OPS, while the Phillies sit at .716.
It may not feel like Philadelphia has the hotter bat, but the numbers say the Braves have been even worse. No playoff team has a lower OPS or wRC+ over that stretch than Atlanta.
The left-handed pitching angle may be even more important. Atlanta has struggled all season against southpaws, ranking 24th in MLB in wRC+ versus lefties with a .694 OPS.
Since May 4, the Braves have been last in the league in that split. That matters because the Phillies are expected to lean on Cristopher Sánchez, with opener Jesus Luzardo in Game 1.
The Braves will also have to deal with whatever Luzardo’s pitch count looks like.
That could open the door for Philadelphia’s lefty relievers too, at least in theory, if Jose Alvarado and Brooks Raley are part of Don Mattingly’s plan.
The Phillies’ biggest edge still starts on the mound, even if the setup is messier than usual. Their rotation ranked second in MLB in K/BB, third in FIP, first in xFIP and SIERA, and fourth in the National League in ERA.
No NL club got more innings from its starters. But Zack Wheeler not being available on regular rest changes the picture, and Luzardo hasn’t started in over three weeks.
Philadelphia may also have the better closer in Jhoan Duran, yet Atlanta’s bullpen is much stronger overall.
Still, there are other ways for the Phillies to create separation, and one of the biggest is on the bases. Statcast says Atlanta had -2.5 baserunning runs below average, the second-worst mark among playoff teams behind only the Astros.
The Braves stole 83 bases and were caught stealing 23 times. Philadelphia stole 105 bases and had runners thrown out 19 times.
There’s also a catching edge for the Phillies. J.T.
Realmuto owns the second-fastest pop time in baseball at 1.85 seconds, and Garrett Stubbs - who could get his first playoff start - is the fastest of all. Stubbs may be in line for more work because of his success receiving for possible Game 3 starter Aaron Nola and Realmuto’s current 1-for-38 slump.
On the other side, Braves catchers Drake Baldwin and Sean Murphy sit at the 63rd and 54th percentiles in pop time, respectively.
And if the Phillies felt snakebitten all season, the underlying numbers back that up. Their team xBA was .250, second in baseball behind the Dodgers, while their actual average was just .240. Their xwOBA and wOBA gap, .318 to .311, was smaller but still pointed to a team that caught a rough break from the baseball gods.
Now it resets. Tuesday brings a fresh slate, and the last six months stop mattering. Trea Turner’s .242 average, Kyle Schwarber’s 45 home runs, Sánchez’s 52.1 scoreless streak, and Alvarado’s 5.86 ERA all get wiped clean for the moment.
In Other News...
Braves Roster Choice Just Changed This Phillies Wild Card Matchup
The Braves made their Wild Card Series roster move with the kind of caution that usually comes with October baseball, adding Luke Williams and Rowdy Tellez from Gwinnett while carrying 11 pitchers into the short series. It is a setup that says plenty about how Atlanta expects to play this round, with a roster built around starting pitching and selective use of the bench rather than a long, rolling relief plan.
For the Phillies, the opponents roster construction matters because it shapes how the matchup may unfold from the first game on. Atlanta is also expected to be without Martin Perez and Lane Thomas because of injuries, which trims some of the depth the Braves would normally lean on in a tight playoff series. The result is a familiar October tension for Philadelphia, one where the numbers on the roster card may matter almost as much as the names in the lineup. [Read more 🡒]
Phillies Face Immediate Pressure After Game 1 Gamble Backfires
Jess Luzardo gave the Phillies a chance to settle in, working well enough to keep the opener tight against Atlanta before the game turned on a sequence the club cant afford to relive. Don Mattingly chose to lean hard on Jhoan Duran in Game 1 of the Wild Card Round, asking the closer to cover multiple innings in a high-stakes spot, and the decision looked viable until the game unraveled around a defensive misplay by Trea Turner and the hits that followed.
Austin Rileys game-winning home run finished the Braves comeback and left Philadelphia with an urgent problem as the series shifts forward. Now the Phillies have to win two straight to keep moving, and they may have to do it with Duran either unavailable or not fully right for Game 2, which puts even more pressure on a roster that already spent its best late-game weapon in a night that got away. [Read more 🡒]
Walt Weiss Sends A Clear Message Before Braves Phillies Showdown
The Braves finally locked up the NL East and punched their ticket to the postseason, then celebrated the division win after beating the Astros. It was a familiar kind of finish for a club that has spent the summer chasing another first-place finish, and it sets up a quick turnaround as the Wild Card Series opens Tuesday afternoon.
For Philadelphia, the timing adds another layer to a rivalry that already carries plenty of October weight. Walt Weiss made clear his team is not interested in worrying about the start time or the opponent, only about being ready when the next round begins. However the bracket settles, the Braves have put themselves in position to keep playing, and the Phillies now know the path ahead includes a division rival that sounds prepared for anything. [Read more 🡒]