The Phillies’ margin for error is getting awfully thin, and the offense is a big reason why.
After opening August with a 4-0 burst, Philadelphia has slipped into a 3-5 stretch heading into its Field of Dreams matchup with the Minnesota Twins. In a crowded National League, that kind of wobble matters. Being six games over .500, as the source notes, wouldn’t even be enough to grab a Wild Card spot right now.
The problem has been the same all season: this lineup swings between hot and frozen. The Phillies are tied for the most games in baseball with one run or fewer scored, yet in their other games they’re averaging more than five runs per contest. That’s the kind of split that can keep a team afloat for a while, but it’s a dangerous way to live when October is the target.
The encouraging part is that the bats have settled down a bit since the trade deadline. From Aug. 3, the deadline, through Aug. 13, the Field of Dreams game, the Phillies averaged 4.5 runs per game. Strip out the final two games of their series against the Cardinals, when they managed just one run combined, and the number jumps to 44 runs across eight games - 5.5 per game.
Luis Arraez has clearly helped. His arrival has given the Phillies a more dependable bat-to-ball presence, something this roster was missing. He’s also been a boost against left-handed pitching, hitting .304 against them this season, which had been the club’s biggest offensive weakness.
Still, Arraez can only do so much if the rest of the lineup keeps drifting in and out of sight. Outside of Kyle Schwarber and Bryce Harper, and excluding Arraez’s work before arriving in Philadelphia, there are only two everyday hitters with an above-average wRC+: Brandon Marsh and Bryson Stott. Even then, both are only just over the line.
That’s the real issue. The Phillies don’t have a lineup full of easy outs, but they also don’t have many hitters who force opposing pitchers to sweat.
Trea Turner is in the middle of, by far, his worst full season in the majors. J.T.
Realmuto has never been less impactful at the plate. And Alec Bohm has drifted back into the earlier version of himself, the one that too often disappears for long stretches.
Schwarber, Harper, and Arraez give Philadelphia a dangerous core. The trouble is everything around them. Unless the rest of the order starts producing with more consistency, the Phillies are one cold stretch away from another short October.
In Other News...
Phillies Add Pitching Insurance With Familiar Organizational Move
The Phillies added a bit of pitching depth by bringing in Casey Lawrence on a minor league contract, a familiar kind of move for a team that likes to keep experienced arms close at hand. Lawrence will report to Triple-A Lehigh Valley, giving Philadelphia another option in the upper minors as it continues to manage the wear and tear that comes with a long season.
Lawrence, 38, comes over after recently opting out of a minor league deal with the Mariners. A journeyman right-hander with major league experience, he has spent much of this season pitching in the minors and has also built a track record in Triple-A and overseas, the sort of resume that makes him a practical organizational fit even if the path back to the big leagues is never guaranteed. [Read more 🡒]
Phillies Fans Are Feeling The Risk In Dave Dombrowskis Arraez Gamble
The Phillies went into the August 3 deadline looking for offense, and Dave Dombrowski chose a path that reflected how thin the market really was. Rather than land the right-handed hitting outfielder many fans expected, Philadelphia dealt for infielder Luis Arraez, banking on his bat to help a lineup that needed a boost as the club stayed in the thick of the wild-card race.
Since the trade, Arraez has fit into the roster puzzle while the Phillies have shuffled defensively to make the move work. He has not exactly ignited the offense yet, though, and that is where the unease around the deal comes from: a team trying to win now made a bet on a player whose early return has been uneven, leaving the bigger question of whether the gamble will pay off when the games get tighter. [Read more 🡒]