The Phillies are almost across the finish line of the regular season, but the bullpen is still hanging over everything. With six games left, their postseason spot is basically there - the magic number is 3, and they can clinch as early as Tuesday at Citizens Bank Park against the Milwaukee Brewers.
That’s the good news. The other side of the story is a relief corps that looks anything but settled.
The starting pitching remains a strength, and Jesus Luzardo even threw for the first time on Sunday and came out well. The offense, though, has slipped back into its stagnant stretch, even if Sunday’s 7-2 win over the Mets offered a brief burst. But the bullpen is the part that feels shaky, and that’s where the real questions live now.
Jhoan Duran is not one of them. He’s been excellent again, piling up 32 saves, 79 strikeouts, a 1.01 WHIP, and a 1.76 ERA.
Since the start of August, he has given up just three earned runs. The bigger issue is how the Phillies use him once October starts.
Last year, he handled multi-inning work at Dodger Stadium, and with this bullpen looking thinner, there’s a real chance he’ll be asked to record 4-6 outs in the postseason.
Alex McFarlane has become one of the biggest surprises in the group. Two months into his Phillies tenure, he has climbed quickly into the trusted-reliever conversation.
He did allow one inherited run on Sunday, but the stuff still played loud. He struck out Juan Soto on 99, 100, and 101.
Right now, he looks like the most likely answer in the eighth inning, and he has earned that spot fast.
Tim Mayza has quietly moved into major importance too. Hitters are batting just .224 against him as a reliever this year, and while he hasn’t been as effective as an opener, that role won’t matter in the postseason.
What matters is getting outs, especially from left-handed hitters. Lefties are hitting just .221 against him in 2026.
Jonathan Bowlan’s situation has gone in the opposite direction. A couple of months ago, he looked like a candidate to handle plenty of eighth innings.
Now he’s coming off five straight appearances with one earned run allowed, a 6.75 ERA in September, and a groin injury just a week before the postseason. He was expected to play catch on Sunday, but the Phillies still don’t know whether he’ll truly be ready.
They are not putting him on the IL, hoping he can still make it back in time.
Brooks Raley has also been a disappointment. The trade looked good when it happened, but the last two months have gone badly, with a mix of poor usage from Don Mattingly and poor pitches from Raley.
At this point, it wouldn’t be a shock if he’s left off the postseason plan entirely, though the Phillies may not have that luxury. If he does pitch, it figures to be in a very specific spot against a left-handed hitter.
Chase Shugart has gone the other direction. He’s moved from mop-up duty to a possible leverage role, and the Phillies need that kind of rise. Over the last few weeks, he’s looked much more like a real playoff option, and there’s a legitimate chance he finds himself in a postseason game after spending four months as the cleanup man.
Jose Alvarado is still a swing piece. The Phillies never quite know which version they’ll get, but they’ll be hoping for the September one.
Over 7.2 innings that month, he posted a 1.17 ERA with 9 strikeouts and 4 walks. They need the electric version, not the erratic one.
Tanner Banks is another arm they’ll be hoping can carry late-season momentum into October. The Phillies want the 2025 version of Banks, not the one they got earlier this year. He gave them two shutout innings Friday night in Queens, and that could matter if it carries forward.
Then there’s the more interesting layer: Andrew Painter and Jesus Luzardo. Painter is most likely to work out of the bullpen in the postseason, and he said he’s ready for the challenge.
Mattingly said Sunday there’s a chance Painter could get a bullpen appearance over the next six days if the opportunity comes. If that happens, his stuff could play up in a one- or two-inning role.
Luzardo is the bigger unknown. In the ideal scenario, he’s healthy for Game 1 and starts.
But even after Sunday’s throwing session, there’s still plenty that isn’t clear. One possibility is that the Phillies use him in the middle of games instead, maybe to cover the sixth through eighth innings.
If Aaron Nola starts a playoff game, Luzardo could also be the arm they turn to once Nola gets through the order a third time. Either way, his health drives the decision.
Orion Kerkering’s future is murkier still. The Phillies optioned him to Triple-A on Saturday night after a disastrous outing, and he will not be on the postseason roster. There’s even a chance he never throws another pitch for the Phillies.
So the bullpen pulse check ends where it started: there is a pulse, but it’s not a strong one. Duran and McFarlane may have to cover 7-8 outs in a playoff game.
Mattingly is going to have to manage this group perfectly. The Phillies need length from their starters, because asking this bullpen for four innings is not a comfortable plan.
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