Andrew Painter’s Comeback Could Be a Game-Changer for the Phillies’ Rotation
As spring training ramps up in Clearwater, the Philadelphia Phillies are staring down a few big questions in their starting rotation. Zack Wheeler won’t be ready for Opening Day.
Aaron Nola is coming off a season he’d probably like to forget. And with Ranger Suárez now in a Red Sox uniform, there’s a hole in the back end of the rotation that needs filling.
Enter Andrew Painter - the 22-year-old right-hander with a golden arm and a chance to make a real impact in 2026.
Painter isn’t a mystery to Phillies fans. He was a first-round pick in 2021, and in 2022, he looked every bit the future ace: a 1.56 ERA, 155 strikeouts, and a WHIP under 0.90 across three levels of the minors.
His fastball was electric, his poise beyond his years. But then came the setback - Tommy John surgery in 2023 - and his 2025 season was more about finding his footing than dominating hitters.
The numbers told the story: a 5-8 record, 5.26 ERA, and a 1.49 WHIP in 26 starts between Clearwater and Lehigh Valley.
But here’s where things get interesting. Phillies president of baseball operations Dave Dombrowski believes Painter is on the verge of rediscovering his best self.
The key? A mechanical adjustment to his fastball - specifically, getting his arm slot back to where it was pre-surgery.
According to Dombrowski, that correction happened over the winter, and the early signs are promising.
Last season, as fatigue set in, Painter’s arm slot dropped. The result?
His fastball got hit - hard. Opponents posted an OPS north of 1.000 against it, a far cry from the .650 OPS and nearly 30% whiff rate he generated with the pitch before surgery.
For a pitcher like Painter, whose arsenal is built around that fastball, getting it back to form isn’t just important - it’s essential.
With Wheeler sidelined to start the season due to recovery from venous thoracic outlet syndrome surgery, there’s a real opening in the rotation. Manager Rob Thomson has made it clear: Painter has a shot to claim the fifth starter spot, and even once Wheeler returns, the young righty is expected to stay in the mix. The Phillies aren’t just looking for a placeholder - they’re hoping Painter can be a pillar.
That said, expectations need to be realistic. Painter is still adjusting to life after surgery and the grind of a full professional season.
He’s got the stuff, no doubt - but consistency may take time. Not every top prospect hits the ground running like Paul Skenes did with the Pirates in 2024.
Painter’s path might be more gradual, but that doesn’t mean it won’t be impactful.
The Phillies believe in Andrew Painter - and with good reason. If that fastball is back, and if the mechanical tweaks hold, he could be a difference-maker in a rotation that needs one. The spotlight will be on him in Clearwater, and the opportunity is there for the taking.