Phillies Reached October But One Pitching Problem Could Ruin Everything

As the Phillies teeter on the brink of another late-season collapse, their playoff hopes hang in a delicate balance as the postseason approaches.

The Phillies spent the final stretch of the regular season acting like a team determined to blow it. Then Zack Wheeler took the ball, the offense finally showed up, and Philadelphia escaped with a 7-3 win that sent the club to the postseason.

That finish looked a lot less certain just days earlier. A week ago, the Phillies were sitting on a five-game cushion for the last playoff spot with eight games left.

They were also battling the Chicago Cubs and San Diego Padres for the top wild-card seed. The Arizona Diamondbacks were nowhere near the center of the conversation until Philadelphia’s skid turned into four straight losses.

Arizona answered with four wins of its own, cutting the Phillies’ lead to one game while holding the tiebreaker. For a moment, the old nightmare felt ready to return, with the 1964 Phillies getting dragged back into the conversation and a familiar wave of frustration building around an organization that has repeatedly fallen short when the stakes are highest.

Wheeler changed that mood quickly. He struck out the side to open the game, then worked six innings, allowing five hits and one run. The offense, quiet for too long, did enough to make the night comfortable by the end.

Still, the route to that clincher was hardly clean. On Friday, Cristopher Sánchez turned in a strong start, giving up two runs over seven innings, and the Phillies still got blanked for the 12th time this season.

On Saturday, with a must-win game staring them in the face against the best team in the American League, they turned to Aaron Nola on two days’ rest. It went badly.

The bullpen followed suit, and the Phillies dropped another one.

Philadelphia got help from elsewhere, too. Out on the West Coast, the Padres held off a late Arizona charge and beat the Diamondbacks 10-7, giving the Phillies the breathing room they needed. Without that result, and without Wheeler’s outing, the season would have ended very differently.

Now the Phillies head to Georgia for a three-game series against a Braves team that has given them trouble. They have not beaten Chris Sale since he joined Atlanta, and they did little against Tyler Mahle in two September meetings, even though he is the presumed Game 2 starter.

The rotation is still the strength of the team, but September wasted some of that advantage. Wheeler is unavailable for Games 1 and 2, so Jesús Luzardo will start Game 1 and Sánchez is lined up for Game 2. Wheeler could be available for a potential Game 3, though that would mean pitching on short rest, which is a tough ask given his age and recent injury history.

Luzardo is a strong option, but he is also coming off an IL stint and was used on Sunday because the bullpen appears to have very little behind Jhoan Durán that Don Mattingly can trust for a clean inning. Luzardo’s warm-up work and the four pitches he threw in live action probably did not tax him much, but it would not be surprising if he only gives the Phillies 4-5 innings.

That leaves a big question: who handles the middle and late innings in a close game? Andrew Painter and Alex McFarlane are the likely answers for the sixth, seventh, and eighth, which says plenty about both the relief corps and the front office that built it.

The left-handed side is just as murky. Who gets Matt Olson in a key spot?

Brooks Raley pitches about once a week and does it poorly. José Alvarado has had a bad year.

Tim Mayza might be there by default. On the right side, Painter and McFarlane bring electric stuff, but they are rookies facing playoff pressure for the first time.

Jonathan Bowlan has struggled down the stretch and left his last outing with a groin injury.

And none of that matters much if the offense keeps dragging. Even with Sunday’s win, the plate discipline has been ugly.

It has been that way for five seasons, outside of last August, when the Phillies happened to play their best baseball. The lineup still has to show it can stop chasing, work counts, get runners on, move them over, steal bases, execute bunts, hit the other way, avoid strikeouts, and not depend on a timely Kyle Schwarber homer to carry the night.

In a league where so many teams are built around swinging as hard as possible and throwing as hard as possible, the basics can still matter. The Milwaukee Brewers and Tampa Bay Rays have proven that. So have the Phillies at their best.

As I mentioned back in February, I hope, but I’m not hopeful. I would love nothing more than for the Phillies to silence the skepticism and go on a run for the ages in October.

They have the talent to do it. I’m not sure they have the fortitude.

When the pressure mounts, this team folds way more often than it should. I have zero expectations that they will defy the precedent they have set since 2021.

And yet, it’s never too late for the Phillies to rewrite their own story. I look forward to reading it.

In Other News...

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For Philadelphia, the bigger wrinkle is on the mound. Zack Wheeler is unlikely to be available early in the series after working in Game 162, which leaves the Phillies to sort through their pitching plan without one of their most dependable arms right away. In a short series against a division rival, that kind of opening-handicap can shape everything from matchups to bullpen usage before the calendar even flips. [Read more 🡒]

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For a Phillies infield picture that is never exactly short on moving parts, Rincons rise only adds to the conversation about what comes next. The Phillies still may choose to let him keep developing in the minors rather than push the pace, with Triple-A potentially waiting in 2027, but his season was the kind that makes it harder to ignore a player for long. [Read more 🡒]