Andrew Painter Still Among MLB’s Top Pitching Prospects Despite Rocky 2025 Return
Andrew Painter’s journey from top prospect to Tommy John rehab and back again hasn’t exactly followed the smooth arc Phillies fans were hoping for. But here’s the thing: despite a tough 2025 season statistically, the 22-year-old right-hander is still viewed as one of the premier arms in all of minor league baseball. And that says a lot about the kind of talent Painter brings to the mound.
Let’s rewind for a second. Painter entered 2023 as the Phillies’ No. 1 prospect, a title he held across just about every major scouting outlet.
The buzz around him was real - electric stuff, advanced poise, and the kind of frame scouts dream about. He was in serious contention to break camp with the big league club that spring.
But the hype train hit a wall when elbow issues led to Tommy John surgery that summer, shelving him for the rest of the year.
Fast forward to the 2024 Arizona Fall League, where Painter finally made his return to game action. It was a cautious step forward, more about shaking off rust than dominating hitters. Then came 2025 - his first full season back - and while the numbers weren’t pretty, the bigger picture still looks promising.
2025: A Year of Growing Pains, But Also Progress
Let’s not sugarcoat it: Painter’s 2025 stat line wasn’t what you’d expect from a top-tier pitching prospect. Over 26 starts split between Single-A Clearwater and Triple-A Lehigh Valley, he posted a 5.26 ERA and a 1.50 WHIP. Opponents hit him at a .9.8 clip per nine innings - the highest rate of his career - while his strikeouts dipped to 9.4 per nine, a career low.
But here’s the silver lining: he stayed healthy. That’s no small thing, especially for a pitcher coming off Tommy John surgery.
Painter logged a career-high 118 innings, a crucial step in proving his arm is ready to handle a full workload again. In that sense, 2025 was a win - not in the box score, but in the long-term development column.
Still Elite in a Loaded Class
Despite the rocky return, Painter remains firmly entrenched in MLB Pipeline’s Top 10 right-handed pitching prospects, coming in at No. 4 for 2026. That’s just one spot lower than last year, and the names ahead of him are no slouches. Nolan McLean (Mets), Bubba Chandler (Pirates), and Trey Yesavage (Blue Jays) all saw big-league action in 2025 and are trending upward.
That’s the kind of company Painter is keeping - pitchers already proving themselves at the highest level. Painter hasn’t made his MLB debut yet, and based on his 2025 performance, it’s fair to say he didn’t quite earn the call-up. But the fact that he’s still ranked this highly tells you everything you need to know about how evaluators view his ceiling.
What’s Next: A Crucial Spring Awaits
Now the focus shifts to 2026. Painter enters spring training with a chance - once again - to crack the Phillies’ rotation.
The opportunity is there. The question is whether he can show that last year’s struggles were more about rust than regression.
If his command returns to pre-surgery form - and that’s a big “if,” but not an unreasonable one - Painter has the tools to be a difference-maker. His fastball-slider combo was electric before the injury, and if he can regain that sharpness, the Phillies could have a cost-controlled, high-upside arm ready to contribute at the major league level.
This season is shaping up to be a “prove-it” year for Painter. Scouts have long believed his stuff plays against big-league hitters.
Now it’s on him to show that he’s not just healthy, but ready. The Phillies don’t need him to be an ace right away - they just need him to take the next step.
And if he does? Watch out. Because a healthy, confident Andrew Painter still has the potential to be one of the most impactful young pitchers in baseball.