The Phillies’ current seven-game winning streak has put them in a good place, but the real question in Philadelphia is whether the back end of the rotation can keep the momentum rolling.
That’s where Aaron Nola and Andrew Painter come in. Jim Bowden of The Athletic singled out the two as the Phillies’ “X-Factors,” and the reasoning is hard to miss: if those starts turn into wins, the whole rotation looks a lot more dangerous.
Bowden put it plainly: "If the Phillies are going to hold on to win a wild-card berth, they're going to have to win more games started by Nola and Painter," Bowden writes. "The Phillies are just 3-7 in Nola's last 10 starts and are 3-13 in Painter's last 16 starts. If they can just win half the games that duo starts, there is no doubt the Phillies can punch their ticket to the playoffs."
There are signs the Phillies are getting more from both arms lately, especially from Nola. He just worked seven strong innings in a win over the Miami Marlins, and his recent stretch looks nothing like the rough early-season version.
Since the start of July, Nola has posted a 3.63 ERA in 52 innings. Over his last five starts, he’s gone 28.2 innings with 34 strikeouts and a 2.51 ERA. His season ERA now sits at 5.12, but the recent run is a much better reflection of where he is right now.
Painter’s path has been bumpier, and he remains the bigger concern. Against the Minnesota Twins, he gave up four runs in the first inning before settling in and allowing just one run over his next four frames, helping the Phillies stay close in a comeback win.
The season numbers are still rough - his ERA is 6.43 - but after more than a month back in the minors, he has returned and shown some stability. In four starts since coming back, the Phillies are 2-2 with a 4.43 ERA, and Painter has struck out 18 in 20.1 innings. Before the Twins outing, his first three starts after the recall included 15.1 innings with a 2.93 ERA.
That’s why the conversation around Philadelphia goes beyond the obvious names like Kyle Schwarber, Jesus Luzardo, and Bryson Stott. They matter, too. But if the Phillies are going to make a real push in October - and maybe even chase down the Atlanta Braves in the NL East - Nola and Painter may be the arms that decide how far this team can go.
In Other News...
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Don Mattinglys Trea Turner Read Should Grab Phillies Fans Attention
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For the Phillies, sitting at 72-58 and holding second place in the NL East, Turners bat remains one of the lineups biggest swing factors as the stretch run tightens. Mattinglys comments should stand out to fans because they speak to more than one game - they touch on the larger question of whether Turner can keep settling in and deliver the kind of production Philadelphia needs once the pressure rises. [Read more 🡒]