The Phillies and Mets just went toe-to-toe in the free agent bullpen market-and while the contracts were identical, the pitchers are anything but.
Philadelphia locked in right-hander Brad Keller on a two-year, $22 million deal, finalizing the move Thursday. Just as that ink was drying, the Mets matched the contract terms with righty Luke Weaver. Two NL East rivals, two veteran arms, two identical deals-but when you dig into the details, it’s clear the Phillies may have gotten the better end of this bullpen arms race.
Let’s start with the basics. Keller is 30, two years younger than the 32-year-old Weaver, and age matters when you're projecting bullpen durability and upside over a multi-year deal. But the real separation comes when you look at what each pitcher did in 2025-and how they did it.
Keller was quietly one of the most effective relievers in the National League last season. In 68 appearances for the Cubs, he posted a 2.07 ERA and struck out 75 batters in just under 70 innings.
That’s an elite 187 ERA+, signaling he was nearly twice as effective as the league average pitcher. Weaver, meanwhile, wasn’t bad-far from it-but his 3.62 ERA and 113 ERA+ with the Yankees don’t quite stack up.
What makes Keller’s breakout even more impressive is the road he took to get here. He underwent thoracic outlet syndrome surgery in October 2023-a procedure that’s derailed more than a few careers-but bounced back with a vengeance in 2025. He didn’t just survive; he thrived.
Keller brings a deep, versatile five-pitch mix to the mound. He averaged 97.2 mph on his fastball last season, putting him in the 88th percentile across the league.
That’s some serious heat, and it’s backed by a slider, sweeper, sinker, and changeup that keep hitters guessing. His stuff doesn’t just miss bats-it induces weak contact at an elite level.
Keller finished in the 99th percentile in hard-hit rate (just 30.6%) and the 95th percentile in ground ball rate (56.6%). That’s the kind of profile that keeps innings clean and scoreboards quiet.
The average exit velocity against him? Just 86.7 mph-top six percent in the league.
Put simply, hitters weren’t squaring him up. And when you’re a reliever coming into high-leverage spots, that’s exactly the kind of profile you want.
Weaver, by comparison, leans more on a traditional three-pitch mix and a fastball that dipped to 95.1 mph in 2025, a noticeable drop from 2024. That velocity slide knocked him down to the 63rd percentile among MLB pitchers. He does have a better chase rate, whiff rate, and strikeout percentage than Keller, but those strengths are undercut by some glaring red flags.
The biggest concern? Fly balls.
Weaver’s ground ball rate was just 27.4%-bottom one percent in the majors-and his 56.3% fly ball rate ranked sixth-worst among 147 qualified relievers. That’s a recipe for disaster, especially when paired with a home run rate of 1.39 per nine innings.
In a division with hitter-friendly parks and big bats, that’s playing with fire.
There’s also the issue of pitch extension and deception-areas where Weaver doesn’t grade out particularly well. When hitters are seeing a lot of fastballs with less velocity and less extension, it’s no surprise they’re lifting the ball more often-and sometimes out of the park.
Now, it’s not that Weaver can’t be a useful piece for the Mets. He’s got swing-and-miss stuff and experience in high-leverage situations. But there’s a lot more volatility in his profile, and the underlying metrics suggest the floor could be lower than the Mets would like.
Keller, meanwhile, is trending in the opposite direction. He’s not just avoiding barrels-he’s joining elite company.
His ground ball rate puts him right alongside Jhoan Duran, who led all of MLB in that category. That’s a strong indicator that his success isn’t a fluke.
It’s built on a foundation of power, pitch variety, and contact suppression.
So while both teams spent the same amount to bolster their bullpens, the Phillies look like they’ve added a more complete, reliable weapon. Keller’s resurgence, pitch arsenal, and ability to keep the ball on the ground make him a high-upside addition to a bullpen that already had strong pieces in place.
The Mets may have matched the dollar amount, but when it comes to the value on the mound, the Phillies are the ones walking away with the win in this one.