The Phillies can drive you crazy and still scare the rest of October.
That’s the tension hanging over this team as the MLB playoffs approach: plenty of flaws, plenty of frustration, and enough talent to make a real run if a few key pieces line up at the right time. Their clearest route to the World Series starts where it always does for this club - on the mound.
Zack Wheeler, Jesús Luzardo and Cristopher Sánchez form the backbone of the rotation, and that trio gives Philadelphia a chance to neutralize just about any lineup in a short series. Luzardo, though, comes with a fresh asterisk after shoulder stiffness sent him to the IL.
If he’s healthy enough to take a normal playoff start, the Phillies look well set for a three-game Wild Card series. If one of those three starters is off, the whole plan starts to wobble.
Even with the rotation in place, the offense has to do enough to matter, and that’s where the picture gets messier. This lineup leans heavily on Bryce Harper and Kyle Schwarber, with too many nights where the rest of the order disappears.
Luis Arraez, acquired in a trade, has been just okay since arriving from the San Francisco Giants. Brandon Marsh, an All-Star, has fallen off hard in the second half.
Alec Bohm, Trea Turner and J.T. Realmuto have offered little despite past success, and rookie Justin Crawford has mostly held steady without making much of a dent.
Bryson Stott has been a plus, but most of his value has come from his defense and baserunning rather than eye-popping offense.
That leaves opposing managers with a pretty obvious approach: keep feeding Harper and Schwarber lefties and make the right-handed bats prove they can beat you. The Phillies do have a few guys who could change that script.
Turner’s season has been rough, but last year’s batting champ is still in there somewhere, and a hot October can erase a lot of bad feelings. Bohm is in the same bucket.
His season-long numbers are ugly, but the last two months have been much better.
If Turner, Bohm or anyone else catches fire, Philadelphia suddenly has a lineup that can support its rotation. It doesn’t need to look like a vintage powerhouse. It just needs to create a few early leads.
The bigger headache may be what happens after the starters leave. The bullpen has been a source of stress all season, and manager Don Mattingly still hasn’t found a reliable formula.
Jhoan Duran stands alone as the trustworthy late-inning arm. After that, the options get shaky fast.
Jonathan Bowlan has slipped lately after looking like a possible find. Orion Kerkering has the talent, but not the stability, especially in save situations.
The left-handed group of Tim Mayza, Brooks Raley, José Alvarado and Tanner Banks has been uneven at best. Alex McFarlane may be the most intriguing fallback, but he has only 15 big league appearances, which makes asking him to close playoff games feel like a huge leap.
And yet there’s still a workable path if the rotation does its job. If Wheeler, Luzardo and Sánchez - with Aaron Nola mixed in when needed - can work deep into games, that cuts down the number of outs the bullpen has to cover. If those starters can get through seven innings, Mattingly only needs three clean outs from the rest before handing the ball to Duran.
That’s the blueprint: length from the rotation, a few timely hits from the lineup’s underperformers, and just enough competence from the bridge to the ninth. If Bowlan rebounds, Alvarado finds the strike zone, Kerkering steadies himself and McFarlane keeps dealing, the bullpen suddenly looks a lot more manageable.
The Phillies still need a lot to go right. They need some disappointing players to wake up, their stars to keep carrying the load and the self-inflicted mistakes to disappear. For a team that has spent the last half-decade finding new ways to trip over itself, that’s no small ask.
But talent matters, and Philadelphia has plenty of it. There are a dozen teams that will still be playing meaningful baseball in October, and the Phillies are better than several of them.
The Dodgers aren’t going to win every title forever. If the Phillies play clean baseball and catch a few breaks, they have a real shot to make this thing interesting.
In Other News...
Phillies Face A Sneaky October Catcher Decision Behind Realmuto
The Phillies have spent most of the season with the catching picture centered on J.T. Realmuto, but the discussion behind him is suddenly a little more interesting as October approaches. Garrett Stubbs and Rafael Marchn are both on the roster as backups, and neither has offered much at the plate, which usually makes the decision feel straightforward until the postseason forces teams to weigh every little edge.
Marchn complicates things because the glove has carried more value than the bat, and that matters when a club starts thinking about short series and late-inning margins. The Phillies may end up leaning on his defensive profile when they settle on the backup role for the playoffs, turning what looked like a routine depth question into one of those sneaky roster calls that can shape October more than it seems in August. [Read more 🡒]
Phillies May Already Have A Luis Arraez Problem This Winter
Luis Arraez has spent the season reminding everyone why his name stays in the middle of winter conversations. The free agent has posted a 3.2 bWAR, led MLB with a .316 batting average and even helped bolster his defensive profile along the way, all of which has only strengthened his standing as one of the more intriguing bats on the market. For the Phillies, theres also been a quieter benefit: Arraez has had a positive influence on Bryce Harper, giving Philadelphia another reason to keep him in the picture beyond the raw numbers.
The problem is that his market may be getting bigger than the clubs comfort zone. Philadelphia is interested in bringing him back, but Arraezs improved stock could draw multiple teams into the mix and make a return less straightforward than it once seemed. What looked like a manageable offseason decision may already be turning into the kind of bidding battle that forces a front office to choose between what it wants and what it can realistically hold onto. [Read more 🡒]
Phillies Suddenly Have A New Rotation Puzzle After Luzardo Injury
The Phillies moved quickly to shore up the staff after Jess Luzardo landed on the injured list, claiming right-hander Jos Urquidy off waivers from the White Sox and clearing a 40-man roster spot by moving Caleb Kilian to the 60-day injured list. It is the kind of bullpen-and-rotation housekeeping that suddenly matters more when a pitching plan gets unsettled, and Philadelphia is now trying to keep enough depth in place while it sorts out the next turn through the schedule.
Manager Don Mattingly said Urquidy is expected to arrive before the next game and could be available out of the bullpen, while Andrew Painter is lined up to start on Saturday. For the Phillies, the immediate question is how to patch together innings without overextending the rest of the staff, especially with Luzardo out and the rotation already shifting around him. [Read more 🡒]