The Phillies are still chasing a playoff spot, but the picture looks better than it did before the All-Star break. If they do get to October, the spotlight will be harsh, and the team’s biggest names will have plenty of chances to shape how far this run goes.
Jim Bowden went looking for those difference-makers in The Athletic, identifying one or two X-factor players for every club in the wild card race. For Philadelphia, he landed on two active arms: Aaron Nola and Andrew Painter. That choice matters, because Bowden is pointing less toward star power already established and more toward the pitchers who could swing the Phillies’ postseason ceiling in 2026.
That doesn’t mean the top of the rotation is a concern. Cristopher Sánchez, Zack Wheeler, and Jesús Luzardo give Philadelphia a trio that can stand with anyone.
The problem has been the stretch behind them. The Phillies are 17-25 in games started by Nola or Painter, a reminder that the back end has been the weak link for much of the season.
Lately, though, there’s been a real uptick. Philadelphia has won three of Nola’s last four starts and Painter’s last two outings, which is exactly the kind of trend the club needs as October gets closer. If those two keep moving in the right direction, the Phillies stop living so dangerously when the rotation turns over.
The depth issue only sharpens the pressure. Behind Nola and Painter, the options are thin, with newly signed Nestor Cortes the only real alternative mentioned here.
He’s expected to supply September innings and help keep the front-line starters fresh for October, but he won’t even be with the team for a while. That leaves Nola and Painter carrying real weight right now.
That’s why Bowden’s read fits. The Phillies can survive with two or three dependable starters for a while, but that approach gets exposed fast in the playoffs.
A trustworthy fourth option would change the equation, and Nola or Painter could be that answer. Without it, any slip from the top three could turn costly in a hurry.
The recent numbers offer some encouragement. Nola has posted a 2.51 ERA over his last five starts, while Painter had a 2.93 ERA over three starts before Sunday’s outing against Minnesota. The offense is its own separate story, and the pitchers can’t control how the bats respond under pressure, but on the mound, the signs are getting better.
Bowden summed up the situation this way: “Even if they barely squeak into the playoffs, the Phillies will be in much better position to succeed as a postseason team than they have been in the regular season because they won’t need more than four starters in any series.”
For Philadelphia, that leaves Nola and Painter in a pivotal spot. One more reliable arm might be enough to push this team from dangerous to legitimate. And in this case, that arm may already be in the building.
In Other News...
Phillies Fans Just Got More Proof Their Broadcast Booth Is Special
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Phillies May Have Found A Needed Answer For Their Overworked Staff
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For Philadelphia, the appeal is obvious even before the team sorts out his exact role. The club has not said whether Cortes will return as a starter or slide into a swingman assignment, but either path would give the Phillies another layer of depth at a time when every healthy arm matters. If he progresses as hoped, he could become the kind of useful midseason answer that keeps the rotation from wearing down. [Read more 🡒]
Don Mattinglys Trea Turner Read Should Grab Phillies Fans Attention
Don Mattingly had a sharp read on Trea Turners hitting approach after the Phillies rolled past the Cardinals 12-3, and it came at a time when Turners season has carried a little more scrutiny than usual. In his 12th major league season and fourth in Philadelphia, Turner has seen his batting average dip, but he still turned in a solid showing in the win, giving the club another reminder of how dangerous he can look when hes on time at the plate.
For the Phillies, sitting at 72-58 and holding second place in the NL East, Turners bat remains one of the lineups biggest swing factors as the stretch run tightens. Mattinglys comments should stand out to fans because they speak to more than one game - they touch on the larger question of whether Turner can keep settling in and deliver the kind of production Philadelphia needs once the pressure rises. [Read more 🡒]