Phillies May Already Have A Luis Arraez Problem This Winter

The Phillies are eager to retain Luis Arraez, but his rising stock and impending free agency make their quest increasingly complicated.

The Phillies may want Luis Arraez back, but keeping him could get complicated once free agency opens.

That’s the tension Philadelphia is facing after acquiring Arraez in the middle of the season. The fit has obvious appeal for a long-term deal, even if he isn’t a home run bat and even if his production for the Phillies hasn’t exactly been loud since the trade. Still, the idea of Arraez remaining in the lineup matters, and his presence has clearly helped Bryce Harper.

The problem is that Arraez may have done enough this season to make himself more expensive.

CBS Sports’ Matt Snyder listed Arraez among the “Five free agents who have helped themselves” this year, pointing to one area in particular: "The main area where Arraez has improved his stock has been on the defensive side."

That defensive boost is a big reason his market could be stronger than Philadelphia would like. Arraez has put together 3.2 bWAR this season between the Phillies and the San Francisco Giants, and by several advanced metrics his defense has been good enough to call him a strong glove this year.

At the plate, he’s still doing what he does best. His .316 batting average leads Major League Baseball, and his .781 OPS is solid.

With the Phillies, though, the numbers have been more modest: a .727 OPS and a .293 average. That’s not overwhelming production, but it has still made him a useful addition.

Harper has also benefited from Arraez being in the lineup. He has been noticeably more patient with him around, and that has helped his own production pick up lately. So Arraez hasn’t just given Philadelphia a defensive upgrade; he’s also played a part in helping Harper settle in offensively.

Even with that impact, the free-agent picture looks crowded. Plenty of teams should have interest in an elite contact hitter who also brings value defensively at second base. The Phillies and Giants are expected to be in the mix, and other clubs are likely to join them.

So while Philadelphia would like to bring Arraez back, that’s far from a simple task. His improved stock this season has put him in a much stronger position heading into the offseason, and that could make a reunion tough for the Phillies.

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