The Phillies have spent much of this season looking like themselves in the worst possible way: a team that can make a game feel comfortable one inning and shaky the next. That’s where the anxiety comes from with 10 games left.
The offense doesn’t inspire much faith right now, and the sense that no lead is truly safe has settled in. Still, the big picture is hard to ignore.
At 84-68, they’re 16 games over .500 after sitting at 9-19 earlier in the year, and barring a generational collapse, they’re headed for a fifth straight postseason. The opponent and the site still aren’t decided.
With the regular season winding down, the question naturally becomes what should actually worry Phillies fans and what shouldn’t. A few areas stand out immediately.
The biggest concern is probably the same one that keeps showing up in ugly October exits: situational hitting and baserunning. The Phillies have been better in those spots this season than they were before, but that bar is low.
Even now, it still doesn’t feel like a real strength. The frustration is less about empty batting practice noise and more about missed chances - not cashing in on good at-bats from Justin Crawford, the uncertainty in the No. 2 spot in the order, or the kind of lazy pop-ups that kill rallies when a line drive would do.
That has been a Phillies problem for years, and it can’t surface again this October.
The baserunning piece is its own headache. Those mistakes usually look like rookie errors, except these aren’t rookies making them. Maybe the postseason sharpens everybody up, but the concern is real.
There’s also the matchup problem looming if the Phillies end up seeing back-to-back lefties in the Wild Card Round. Right-handed hitters have posted an .814 OPS against lefties since July 1st, according to Matt Gelb, which is a huge turnaround for a team that was almost an automatic loss against southpaws for the first three months of the season.
Even so, the worry doesn’t disappear, especially when it comes to Bryce Harper. He’s carrying a .686 OPS against left-handed pitching this year and a .344 slugging percentage, numbers that have been troubling all season.
Alec Bohm has helped ease some of that pressure, pushing his OPS back above .700 after a rough first half and handling lefties well over the last two months.
Not everything on the list is cause for alarm. Cristopher Sanchez’s recent struggles don’t seem to have changed much in terms of confidence, and neither has Jesus Luzardo’s health, at least not entirely.
Luzardo is eligible to come off the IL on the final day of the regular season, and it wouldn’t be a surprise to see him pitch in some capacity then just to get him back on a mound before the postseason. The belief here is that when Luzardo takes the ball, he’ll grind through whatever is bothering him.
He’s already said multiple times that if the postseason started tomorrow, he’s going to figure out a way.
The bullpen, oddly enough, also landed in the “not worried” category, though that one comes with some raised eyebrows. The group is not exactly in a secure place.
The second-most trusted reliever is a rookie. Jonathan Bowlan has scuffled badly over the last month.
Jose Alvarado has flashed signs of real life, but he still makes you hold your breath. Orion Kerkering isn’t exactly the arm many Phillies fans want in a huge spot, and Brooks Raley has struggled in limited work.
Getting to the ninth inning is going to be a fight.
One of the more obvious worries is Don Mattingly. The issue isn’t just the bullpen chaos he’s been handed.
There have also been moments over the last few months where his decisions have felt off, whether that’s pinch-running too early or passing over the wrong pinch-hitter. Those kinds of calls can loom large when the games tighten up.
And then there’s the biggest individual concern of all: Trea Turner. He’s hitting .240 with a .647 OPS, tied for 122nd out of 137 qualified hitters.
His .292 on-base percentage ranks 127th out of 137. He had a .572 OPS in August, and this season has been a negative one for the Phillies.
He doesn’t appear likely to be moved out of the No. 2 spot, either. If Turner suddenly flips the script and has a big postseason, the last six months will fade fast.
But right now, that’s a hard thing to say with any confidence.
In Other News...
Phillies Face A Sneaky October Catcher Decision Behind Realmuto
The Phillies have spent most of the season with the catching picture centered on J.T. Realmuto, but the discussion behind him is suddenly a little more interesting as October approaches. Garrett Stubbs and Rafael Marchn are both on the roster as backups, and neither has offered much at the plate, which usually makes the decision feel straightforward until the postseason forces teams to weigh every little edge.
Marchn complicates things because the glove has carried more value than the bat, and that matters when a club starts thinking about short series and late-inning margins. The Phillies may end up leaning on his defensive profile when they settle on the backup role for the playoffs, turning what looked like a routine depth question into one of those sneaky roster calls that can shape October more than it seems in August. [Read more 🡒]
Phillies May Already Have A Luis Arraez Problem This Winter
Luis Arraez has spent the season reminding everyone why his name stays in the middle of winter conversations. The free agent has posted a 3.2 bWAR, led MLB with a .316 batting average and even helped bolster his defensive profile along the way, all of which has only strengthened his standing as one of the more intriguing bats on the market. For the Phillies, theres also been a quieter benefit: Arraez has had a positive influence on Bryce Harper, giving Philadelphia another reason to keep him in the picture beyond the raw numbers.
The problem is that his market may be getting bigger than the clubs comfort zone. Philadelphia is interested in bringing him back, but Arraezs improved stock could draw multiple teams into the mix and make a return less straightforward than it once seemed. What looked like a manageable offseason decision may already be turning into the kind of bidding battle that forces a front office to choose between what it wants and what it can realistically hold onto. [Read more 🡒]
Phillies Suddenly Have A New Rotation Puzzle After Luzardo Injury
The Phillies moved quickly to shore up the staff after Jess Luzardo landed on the injured list, claiming right-hander Jos Urquidy off waivers from the White Sox and clearing a 40-man roster spot by moving Caleb Kilian to the 60-day injured list. It is the kind of bullpen-and-rotation housekeeping that suddenly matters more when a pitching plan gets unsettled, and Philadelphia is now trying to keep enough depth in place while it sorts out the next turn through the schedule.
Manager Don Mattingly said Urquidy is expected to arrive before the next game and could be available out of the bullpen, while Andrew Painter is lined up to start on Saturday. For the Phillies, the immediate question is how to patch together innings without overextending the rest of the staff, especially with Luzardo out and the rotation already shifting around him. [Read more 🡒]