The Phillies left Thursday with a sour taste after a painful series finale against the Astros, but the bigger picture still looks pretty bright. With 15 games left, Philadelphia has pushed its magic number to clinch a playoff spot down to 12.
That means the finish line is close enough to see. Twelve Phillies wins would get the job done.
So would 12 losses by the teams chasing them in the Wild Card race. More likely, it takes only a few more victories mixed with a little help from elsewhere, and the champagne will be ready in the clubhouse.
It is a long way from late April, when the Phillies stumbled out to a 9-19 start and manager Rob Thomson “fell on his sword.” Back then, a postseason berth felt like a stretch. Now the club sits at 82-65 and still has a shot at the Braves in the division, even with a 4.0-game gap to make up.
That gap matters because Friday brings the next test: a three-game set in Atlanta against the Braves. Even if Philadelphia can’t reel in the division, it is in strong position to make the playoffs as a Wild Card team.
The National League Wild Card race has thinned out after being crowded for much of the year. The Pirates, Marlins and Cardinals have faded, leaving the Phillies, Cubs, Padres and Diamondbacks as the teams still battling for the three spots.
Right now, the Phillies hold the top Wild Card position. They are 1.0 game ahead of the Cubs, who are 2.5 games up on the Padres. If the standings stayed put, Chicago would be the visitor at Citizens Bank Park for a best-of-three series played entirely in Philadelphia.
That home-field edge is the key detail. A first-round bye is probably out of reach, so the Phillies’ job now is to set themselves up well for the Wild Card round. Citizens Bank Park may have lost some of its shine after a string of October letdowns and its reputation as “ four hours of Hell ” has lingered, but it still gives the Phillies a real advantage.
Most importantly, this September does not have to turn into a stress-filled sprint. Unless the Phillies suffer a major collapse, they can use the final stretch to get themselves ready for October and keep their eyes on the larger prize: a long-awaited World Series trophy.
In Other News...
Phillies Suddenly Face A Luzardo Concern They Really Couldn't Afford
The Phillies took a frustrating extra-innings loss to the Braves and watched the gap in the division widen to five games, but the bigger concern might have come after the final out. Don Mattingly said Jess Luzardo was scratched from his scheduled start because of left shoulder stiffness, a troubling development for a rotation that has leaned on him more than any other recent arm.
Luzardo has been the clubs most effective pitcher lately, which makes his status especially important with the standings already tightening in the wrong direction. Any absence now carries real weight for Philadelphia, not just in the division chase but in the larger postseason picture, where the margin for error keeps shrinking by the day. [Read more 🡒]
Phillies Suddenly Change Plans For A Braves Game That Matters
A key Phillies pitching plan hit a snag just as the club prepared for a game with real implications against Atlanta. Jess Luzardo was scratched from the starting assignment because of stiffness in his left shoulder, according to manager Don Mattingly, and Philadelphia is now turning to a bullpen game instead. Luzardo has been one of the team's workhorse arms this season, giving the rotation important length and regularly taking on heavy innings and pitch counts.
For the Phillies, the timing matters almost as much as the injury concern itself. A bullpen day against the Braves changes the shape of the matchup, and it puts more strain on a relief group that may already be asked to do plenty. The expectation is that Luzardo will be back in a few days after extra rest, but the immediate question is how Philadelphia navigates this stretch without one of its most relied-upon starters. [Read more 🡒]
Phillies Have A Jhoan Duran Problem They Can't Ignore In October
Jhoan Duran has been one of the biggest reasons the Phillies have been able to steady their late innings this season. The All-Star closer has piled up strikeouts and worked his way into the role the club expected when it brought him in, giving Philadelphia a dominant arm to lean on when games tighten up in September and beyond.
But October has a way of exposing every soft spot, and Durans numbers in tie games are hard to overlook. Opposing hitters have done far too much damage in those spots, including a costly homer in a recent game against the Astros, while the bullpen around him has been uneven enough to force the Phillies to think carefully about who gets the biggest outs if the game is still hanging in the balance. [Read more 🡒]