The Phillies are still positioned to play October baseball as a Wild Card team, but that only gets them in the door. Once the playoffs start, the margin for error gets thin fast, and Philadelphia has a few obvious weak points that could turn into real problems.
The biggest issue is what happens after the starters are done. The rotation gives the Phillies a real chance to stay in games, with Zack Wheeler, Cristopher Sánchez and Jesús Luzardo leading the way, along with the resurgent Aaron Nola and Andrew Painter.
But the bullpen behind them is shaky at best. Free agent addition Brad Keller is out for the year after undergoing Tommy John surgery, Orion Kerkering has completely devolved into madness, José Alvarado has been a disaster when asked to clean things up, and even trade pickup Jonathan Bowlan has been leaking oil in recent weeks.
The only workable approach is to stretch the starters as far as possible and turn Jhoan Duran into the final answer as often as possible. In October, four-, five- and even six-out saves could become the norm for him.
After Duran, Bowlan and rookie Alex McFarlane are probably the most usable options, but that bridge looks awfully fragile against teams like the Atlanta Braves and Los Angeles Dodgers.
The lineup has its own trouble spot, and it starts with the right-handed bats. Trea Turner has been an absolute albatross this season, hitting .241 across 597 at-bats with a career-worst .678 OPS.
That matters because the Phillies are built around left-handed hitters, and Turner, J.T. Realmuto and Alec Bohm have all struggled enough to let opponents keep throwing lefties at them without much fear.
Kyle Schwarber and Bryce Harper can carry plenty of the load in the regular season, but playoff baseball demands more balance. If the right-handed side of the lineup can’t punish southpaws, opposing managers will have an easy time matching up.
Then there’s Luis Arraez, the contact hitter who was supposed to give this offense a different shape. Phillies president of baseball operations Dave Dombrowski made just two moves at the deadline, and Arraez was the headliner after coming over from the San Francisco Giants.
A three-time, likely soon to be four-time batting champion, he brings a skill set the Phillies badly needed. But through 37 games in red pinstripes, he’s only hit .283/.301/.372 with nine extra-base hits and 16 RBI.
He’s struck out just five times, so the contact is there. The damage hasn’t followed.
If Arraez gets back to the .316 hitter he’s been for his career, he could be a major run producer out of the cleanup spot. If not, the Phillies’ boom-or-bust offense could go quiet at the wrong time.
And behind the plate, there’s one more tricky decision: who catches Aaron Nola? J.T.
Realmuto is still clearly the best catcher on the roster, even if he’s a shell of his old self at the plate. He remains a strong defender with above-average speed, and his .654 OPS is still well ahead of backups Garrett Stubbs and Rafael Marchán.
Realmuto seems like the obvious playoff choice, but Nola has been paired almost exclusively with Stubbs lately, and that has coincided with a remarkable turnaround for the right-hander. That creates a real dilemma for the Phillies.
They can ride with a franchise legend who isn’t what he used to be, or give more time to a bench catcher whose biggest strength is curating Spotify playlists. Either way, the team will be hoping the catcher spot doesn’t become an offensive sinkhole.
The Phillies have enough star power to look dangerous. They also have enough weak links to make every October game feel like a tightrope act.
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The bat is now loud enough to matter, with Rincon putting together a .267/.410/.517 line and adding impact in more ways than one. MLB Pipelines decision to push him onto its top-100 list reflects how far his profile has come, but it also leaves the bigger question hanging for the Phillies: if the defense was always there and the hitting is arriving faster than expected, how soon does a player like this start forcing his way into a much more meaningful conversation? [Read more 🡒]
Phillies Just Got Strong Outside Validation As Real World Series Threats
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Even with some inconsistency during the season, the broader view around the league is that the Phillies have enough high-end talent to stay in the World Series conversation. The executive even suggested that if Philadelphia ends up in the postseason as a Wild Card team, the staff alone could make that path far less daunting than it looks on paper, which is the kind of outside validation contenders tend to notice. [Read more 🡒]