Phillies’ Rotation Depth Gives Them Flexibility, But Will They Still Add an Arm?
The Philadelphia Phillies head into the heart of the offseason with one of the more enviable problems in baseball: a strong, mostly intact starting rotation. Even with Ranger Suárez hitting free agency, the Phillies aren’t scrambling to fill holes.
They’ve already got four rotation spots spoken for with Cristopher Sánchez, Zack Wheeler, Jesús Luzardo, and Aaron Nola locked in. That fifth spot?
It’s shaping up to be a spring training battle between veteran Taijuan Walker and top prospect Andrew Painter.
But as with any rotation, especially one with postseason aspirations, depth isn’t just a luxury-it’s a necessity. And with Wheeler recovering from thoracic outlet decompression surgery in September, there’s a real possibility he won’t be ready for Opening Day. That would bump Walker into the rotation by default, and given Painter’s limited big-league experience, the Phillies may not be eager to throw him into the fire right away.
So, what’s the play here? Do the Phillies add another arm as insurance? Or do they ride with what they’ve got?
The Cost of Mid-Tier Arms Is Rising
If Philadelphia does decide to bring in a mid-tier starter, it’s not going to come cheap. The Diamondbacks just re-signed Merrill Kelly to a two-year, $40 million deal-$20 million per year. That’s a hefty price tag for a pitcher who slots in as a No. 2 or No. 3 starter, and it sets the market for other free-agent arms looking for similar roles.
The Phillies are already paying Walker close to that range-$18 million in 2026, the final year of his four-year deal. Adding another veteran starter in the same financial bracket would be a stretch unless it’s someone they’re absolutely sold on. More likely, they’ll be looking for a lower-cost option, ideally someone who can be had for under $10 million a year.
Could Tatsuya Imai Be an Exception?
There’s one name floating around that could push the Phillies to open the checkbook: Tatsuya Imai. The Japanese right-hander has drawn interest from multiple MLB teams, and he won’t come cheap.
Think multi-year deal, well north of the $10 million annual range. If the Phillies view Imai as more than just depth-a real rotation piece with upside-they might be willing to make an exception.
But that’s a big “if,” especially with other holes on the roster still to fill.
Dombrowski’s Track Record Suggests a Value Play
When you look at how president of baseball operations Dave Dombrowski has handled pitching depth in recent years, the trend is clear: value signings with upside. Spencer Turnbull came in on a one-year, $2 million deal in February 2024.
Joe Ross followed with a one-year, $4 million contract in December 2024. Both were low-risk additions who could either start or pitch out of the bullpen-exactly the kind of flexibility the Phillies covet.
That could be the blueprint again this offseason. Rather than splurge on a mid-rotation arm, Dombrowski may wait until spring training to snag a veteran on a short-term deal, someone who can give them innings when needed but doesn’t clog the payroll or block Painter’s development.
Bigger Priorities Elsewhere
The Phillies’ rotation, even without Suárez, is still in solid shape. That gives them the luxury of patience.
They’ve got more pressing needs elsewhere-namely, a starting catcher and a setup reliever. Those are areas where spending could make more immediate sense.
Unless a specific pitcher becomes available who checks all the boxes-affordable, versatile, and reliable-the Phillies can afford to be selective. They’re not in desperation mode. They’ve got options internally, and they’ve got time.
So while the Merrill Kelly deal might raise eyebrows, don’t expect the Phillies to follow suit with a big-money splash for a starter. If anything, they’re more likely to wait, watch the market shake out, and pounce on a value deal when the timing-and price-is right.