With J.T. Realmuto entrenched as the starter, the Phillies are still staring at an awkward October question behind the plate: Garrett Stubbs or Rafael Marchán as the backup catcher?
That might sound like a small issue, but this year has turned it into a real one. Stubbs and Marchán have both given Philadelphia more headaches than help, and the numbers make that hard to ignore.
Stubbs has a 7 wRC+ and -0.4 fWAR. Marchán is even colder offensively at -24 wRC+ with -0.5 fWAR.
For a team leaning on a 35-year-old catcher, that’s not exactly comforting.
Realmuto’s own season is part of why this matters so much. He has the worst offensive year of his career by both OPS (.655) and wRC+ (78), and the wear is showing late in the season.
In September, he’s striking out 27% of the time while carrying a .594 OPS. So while the default answer in the postseason is usually “just play the starter,” the Phillies don’t really have that luxury here.
That leaves the backup spot with real weight, and the case for Marchán starts with defense. Offensively, he’s a tough sell.
He’s batting below .100 and reaching base less than 14% of the time, which is about as bleak as it gets. If he’s in the lineup, the Phillies are giving up offense no matter what.
But Stubbs isn’t exactly bringing much more with the bat, either. His .220 OBP is only a slight improvement, and Marchán at least has some occasional power in his profile. Once the offense gets stripped away, the argument shifts almost entirely to who gives the Phillies more behind the plate.
That’s where Marchán separates himself. He’s been excellent in a number of defensive measures, including Defensive Runs Saved (+5) and Fielding Run Value (+6).
The Statcast numbers back it up too: Blocks Above Average at +4, which lands in the 77th percentile, and Framing Runs at +4, good for the 80th percentile. Stubbs has value on defense as well - he’s at +2 FRV and has done a strong job controlling baserunners - but he doesn’t match Marchán’s all-around profile.
The one real argument for Stubbs is his connection to Aaron Nola. He has become Nola’s personal catcher, and with Jesús Luzardo on the injured list, that relationship could carry extra weight. Still, if the Phillies are choosing their playoff backup catcher strictly on the balance of what each player brings, Marchán’s glove gives him the edge.
In Other News...
Phillies May Already Have A Luis Arraez Problem This Winter
Luis Arraez has spent the season reminding everyone why his name stays in the middle of winter conversations. The free agent has posted a 3.2 bWAR, led MLB with a .316 batting average and even helped bolster his defensive profile along the way, all of which has only strengthened his standing as one of the more intriguing bats on the market. For the Phillies, theres also been a quieter benefit: Arraez has had a positive influence on Bryce Harper, giving Philadelphia another reason to keep him in the picture beyond the raw numbers.
The problem is that his market may be getting bigger than the clubs comfort zone. Philadelphia is interested in bringing him back, but Arraezs improved stock could draw multiple teams into the mix and make a return less straightforward than it once seemed. What looked like a manageable offseason decision may already be turning into the kind of bidding battle that forces a front office to choose between what it wants and what it can realistically hold onto. [Read more 🡒]
Phillies Suddenly Have A New Rotation Puzzle After Luzardo Injury
The Phillies moved quickly to shore up the staff after Jess Luzardo landed on the injured list, claiming right-hander Jos Urquidy off waivers from the White Sox and clearing a 40-man roster spot by moving Caleb Kilian to the 60-day injured list. It is the kind of bullpen-and-rotation housekeeping that suddenly matters more when a pitching plan gets unsettled, and Philadelphia is now trying to keep enough depth in place while it sorts out the next turn through the schedule.
Manager Don Mattingly said Urquidy is expected to arrive before the next game and could be available out of the bullpen, while Andrew Painter is lined up to start on Saturday. For the Phillies, the immediate question is how to patch together innings without overextending the rest of the staff, especially with Luzardo out and the rotation already shifting around him. [Read more 🡒]
White Sox Lose Veteran Arm As Another Contender Pounces
The Phillies added another experienced arm to their pitching depth by claiming Jose Urquidy off waivers from the White Sox, a move that fits the kind of late-season roster churn contenders tend to make. Urquidy has already pitched for two other teams this season, and his rsum still stands out because of the playoff innings he has logged, including a World Series title with Houston in 2022.
To clear a spot on the 40-man roster, Philadelphia shifted right-handed reliever Caleb Kilian to the 60-day injured list, a reminder that every bullpen addition comes with a corresponding shuffle somewhere else. For the Phillies, the intrigue now is less about the waiver claim itself and more about how quickly Urquidy can factor into a staff that is always searching for dependable depth when the games start to tighten. [Read more 🡒]