With the Phillies carrying so much veteran weight, the arbitration board is a pretty small one this winter. Only eight players on the roster are eligible, and the list includes Jhoan Durán, Bryson Stott, Brandon Marsh, Bryan De La Cruz, Orion Kerkering, Derek Hill, Rafael Marchán, and Tanner Banks.
The easy calls are at the top. Durán and Stott are locks to get tendered, and there’s no real mystery there. Both are important pieces in the middle of their primes, and both look like players who can still be part of the Phillies’ core in 2027.
Marsh is next in line, and he should be back too. His case isn’t quite as clean as Durán’s or Stott’s, but it’s close enough.
He’s projected to make around $9 million, which is a hefty number for a player who posted a .713 OPS and 0.4 WAR last season. Even so, his track record gives him enough credibility to earn a contract.
And if the Phillies decide he doesn’t fit into next year’s plans, he’d still carry value on the trade market.
De La Cruz looks like another obvious keep. He was one of only four Phillies, alongside Bryce Harper, Kyle Schwarber, and Hill, to post an OPS+ above 100 in any sample size last season.
His arbitration estimate sits at just over $1 million, which makes him an easy player to retain for 2027. He’s also kept rolling in the Dominican Winter League, where he has a 1.038 OPS in four games with the Toros del Este.
Kerkering should also stick around. If his salary projection were higher, he’d be in a much shakier spot, but with an estimate below $2 million, he’s likely to get a deal. Even if the Phillies don’t view him as a long-term answer, he still makes sense as trade bait.
Hill has carved out a real role, too. After the mid-season emergency trade that came after Adolis García’s season-ending injury, he’s become the Edmundo Sosa of the outfield and now figures into the Phillies’ 2027 plans. It’s the kind of under-the-radar find front offices love, and Dombrowski appears to have landed one.
The more uncertain names are Marchán and Banks. Marchán’s hold on a roster spot looks especially shaky.
He’s projected to earn about $1 million, but the bigger issue is performance. A .099/.137/.165 slash line simply doesn’t belong on a Major League roster.
If the Phillies pass on him, it wouldn’t be a surprise to see him land back with the organization on a minor-league free-agent deal and try to win a job in spring training.
Banks is in a different kind of danger. He’s projected just shy of $2 million, but his numbers last season were rough enough to make a non-tender a real possibility.
He finished with a 6.19 ERA and gave up eight home runs in only 36.1 innings. A forearm injury clearly didn’t help, and that may be enough for the Phillies to consider a bounce-back path before making a final call.
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For Philadelphia, the interest is less about what Stoudt already was than what Tampa Bay might help him become. The Rays have built a reputation for getting more out of pitchers who arrive with a bit of untapped upside, and Stoudt fits that mold well enough to make the signing worth watching from afar. If he gets back on track, it could be one of those low-profile moves that looks a lot bigger in hindsight. [Read more 🡒]