The Phillies have spent most of the season trying to climb out of the crater they dug early, and the latest odds update shows how fragile that recovery still is.
Philadelphia opened 9-19 and responded by firing manager Rob Thomson. Since Don Mattingly took over as interim manager, the club has played much better and quickly pushed itself back into the National League race. At one point, this group made history by becoming the first MLB team ever to be 10 games under .500 in April and then 10 games over .500 before the end of June.
But the momentum has cooled. Since then, the Phillies have hovered just below .500, and that stretch has dragged down both their playoff and championship outlook.
In Bradford Doolittle’s latest ESPN stock watch, Philadelphia slipped to ninth in projected wins at 85.6, down from seventh and 87.7 in the previous update. Their playoff odds fell from 72.1% to 65.0%, while their chances of winning the World Series dipped from 2.1% to 1.8%.
The drop wasn’t just about the Phillies sliding. The Arizona Diamondbacks and Boston Red Sox moved ahead of them in projected wins, with Boston described as historically dominant over the last few weeks. Still, Philadelphia’s own uneven play did most of the damage.
The rough patch after the All-Star break erased much of the good will built before it. The Phillies dropped series to the New York Mets, Los Angeles Dodgers, New York Yankees and Miami Marlins, going 3-9 in that span. They opened the second half 3-10 after losing the first game to the Baltimore Orioles, though they have started to steady themselves since then.
That turnaround has come against weaker competition. Since that loss to Baltimore on July 31, Philadelphia has won its last two games against the Orioles and then took three of four from the Washington Nationals.
The schedule now gives them a clear chance to keep moving up. Their next seven series come against teams that are not currently in the playoff field, which gives the Phillies a path to pile up wins and strengthen their position in the National League Wild Card race.
As of Aug. 7, Philadelphia sits in the second Wild Card spot, one game ahead of the Diamondbacks. Six teams are within 5.5 games of the final Wild Card position, so this race is still crowded and likely to stay tight all the way through.
The Chicago Cubs are five games ahead, which makes them a tough target, while the Atlanta Braves are 8.5 games up. Even so, Philadelphia has already trimmed that Braves lead to as little as 2.5 games this year, so the gap is not out of reach.
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The game itself ended in a loss for the Phillies, but Kalb's stint behind the mic became one of the night's most talked-about bright spots. Among fans and across social media, the common refrain was less about the score and more about how naturally he handled the moment, which made the whole thing feel like more than just a one-inning novelty. [Read more 🡒]
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Phillies Just Created Another Bullpen Question With Latest Roster Move
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The more notable wrinkle came on the pitching side, where Lou Trivino was designated for assignment and then chose free agency, leaving Philadelphia to sort through another bullpen opening. For a staff that has already had to keep one eye on available arms and another on roster flexibility, the sequence only adds to the sense that the relief group is still very much a work in progress. [Read more 🡒]