The Phillies are heading toward a trade deadline where the market may not cooperate.
With the third Wild Card spot in play and the American League looking thin, buyers are piling up while sellers are hard to find. That kind of setup drives prices up fast, and it leaves a team like Philadelphia in a tricky spot. Dave Dombrowski has a few clear needs to chase - a right-handed hitter, an outfielder, a starting pitcher, and a set-up man - but not a ton of prospect depth to work with.
That means the Phillies may need a few teams on the edge of the Wild Card race to keep sliding. If those clubs decide to sell, Philadelphia’s deadline gets a lot easier.
San Diego is one of the most interesting possibilities. The Padres are trying to stay above .500 and keep pace for the third NL Wild Card, but their flaws are showing.
The rotation leans heavily on Michael King and faith, while the expensive bats in the lineup have not produced like even average hitters. A.J.
Preller is also the kind of executive who can turn aggressive in a hurry, so if San Diego gives up on the chase, it could go into a full retool for 2027 and beyond. That would put just about everyone on the table, including Fernando Taits Jr. and Mason Miller.
More realistic Phillies targets would be King, who has a 3.34 ERA, reliever Adrian Morejon, who owns a 2.46 FIP, or first baseman Ty France, who has a 142 wRC+.
Minnesota would also make sense if it decides to step back instead of trying to hang on in the AL Central. The two clubs have plenty of recent history, and even though Derek Falvey is no longer running things in Minnesota, the Twins could still line up well with Philadelphia.
Byron Buxton is the dream, but the odds of him moving this summer are low. Trevor Larnach, a left-handed hitter, has been excellent in left field with a 138 wRC+, and Ryan Jeffers would give the Phillies a right-handed bat with a .950 OPS.
On the pitching side, Joe Ryan would be the big swing, though a deal like that would probably strip the top of the farm system. Bailey Ober, with a 4.32 ERA, would be the cheaper route and give the Phillies a steady back-end starter if they want to save their best pieces for offense.
Houston is the other team that could change the deadline picture. It still feels strange to talk about the Astros as sellers, but the version that won the 2022 title has faded, and they are barely hanging on in a weak AL Wild Card field.
Yordan Alvarez is too expensive to even bother with here, but Isaac Paredes, who has a 121 wRC+, and Jeremy Pena, who has a .452 slugging percentage, would fit the Phillies’ need for a right-handed bat. The pitching options are thinner, though Steven Okert, with a 2.17 ERA, or Josh Hader, who has a 39.7% strikeout rate, could change the feel of Philadelphia’s bullpen in a hurry.
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The problem is that Lindor does not look like the cleanest fit for this roster, even before you get into the cost of making a deal work. With Trea Turner already in place long term, shortstop is not exactly an obvious opening, and the better path for Philadelphia may be to use its deadline capital on a different kind of upgrade, with an outfielder on an expiring contract making more sense than a splash at Lindors position. [Read more 🡒]
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What makes this possibility more intriguing is the balance of risk and cost. The right-hander has not been as sharp this season, but he is still under contract through 2027, which gives any acquiring team some control beyond a simple rental. For the Phillies, that kind of deal could fit the need for a bullpen reset without forcing them to pay the kind of premium that usually comes with deadline relief help. [Read more 🡒]