The Phillies are staring at the same old October problem, and the fix they seem to be leaning toward is a dangerous one.
Don Mattingly clearly does not have full faith in most of his bullpen arms when the game tightens up. That leaves Jhoan Duran and rookie Alex McFarlane carrying an outsized load, with both pitchers expected to handle the kinds of high-pressure moments that can decide a postseason game.
It’s a workable setup in the regular season. In October, it can get exposed fast.
According to Matt Gelb of The Athletic, the club is exploring a plan built around getting by with as few pitchers as possible. The idea is to lean on the strengths of the roster, which means riding the starters deeper and trying to keep the middle relievers out of the spotlight. That approach fits Mattingly’s old-school instincts, but it also puts a lot on the shoulders of two hard-throwing right-handers.
The reason for the shift is easy to see in the numbers and in the recent results. Since the start of September, the Phillies rank 27th in bullpen ERA at 5.34.
Chase Shugart has provided a 0.00 ERA and José Alvarado has been strong with a 1.13 ERA, but the rest of the relief group has not held up. Orion Kerkering was demoted after struggling, and Brooks Raley has been ineffective enough to look close to unusable.
That leaves Mattingly leaning heavily on Duran and McFarlane, with the hope that they can bridge the gap from the rotation to the back end without much help. The catch is that this likely means multi-inning work, especially if Zack Wheeler or Christopher Sánchez gets knocked out before the sixth or seventh inning.
For McFarlane, that’s a major ask. He has gone beyond three outs only twice in his brief major league career, including his most recent appearance on September 22 against the Brewers.
He also threw two innings twice in Double-A this season, but those outings came back in June and July. He has already passed his previous career high in appearances, reaching 53 combined between the majors and minors this year, so expecting him to suddenly absorb a heavier October workload is a gamble.
Duran has a little more history in longer outings, with two-plus innings in 20 career appearances. Still, only five of those outings have come since 2024, and he has worked more than three outs only once this season. He is the Phillies’ ninth-inning weapon, and stretching him further in the postseason could create the exact kind of trouble the team is trying to avoid.
There is one possible escape hatch if Jesús Luzardo returns from injury as a bulk reliever. But that would mean removing him from the rotation, which weakens the overall staff. So the Phillies may end up in the same place they always seem to land: hoping two relievers can cover for everyone else.
In Other News...
Phillies Suddenly Have A New October Worry With Luis Arraez
Luis Arraezs night ended early Thursday after he came up limping on a play at first base, giving the Phillies a fresh health concern as the regular season winds down. The initial diagnosis is a sprained ankle, and the next step is further evaluation, but even that first update is enough to add some unease around a team trying to get through the final stretch in one piece.
For Philadelphia, the timing matters as much as the injury itself. Any absence for Arraez could ripple into the clubs final games before the MLB playoffs, where even a minor setback can affect lineup plans, rhythm, and late-season momentum. The Phillies are already close enough to October to feel every scare, and this one arrives with no shortage of relevance. [Read more 🡒]
Phillies Playoff Push Is Raising Two Very Different October Concerns
The Phillies are closing in on a fifth straight playoff berth, and the late-season surge has come after a rough opening stretch that put real pressure on a club expected to contend. Under interim manager Don Mattingly, the turnaround has steadied the group enough to carry a two-game edge over the Arizona Diamondbacks with three games left, putting Philadelphia in position to keep its October streak alive.
Alec Bohm has been part of that push, with his play picking up notably since August and giving the lineup a more reliable presence as the games tightened. Orion Kerkering, though, has been on the opposite track, and his recent struggles have left a different kind of question hanging over the bullpen as the Phillies try to finish the job and sort out which version of this team they can trust once the postseason begins. [Read more 🡒]
Phillies Could Get A Huge October Arm Back At The Right Time
Jess Luzardos status is suddenly one of the more interesting September subplots for the Phillies as October nears. The left-hander has been sidelined by left shoulder inflammation, but he now sounds like a pitcher who believes the worst of it is behind him, and that matters for a rotation built to shorten games when the stakes rise.
Luzardo also brings the kind of postseason flexibility contenders covet, saying he would take on whatever role the club needs once the playoffs begin. For a pitcher who has made six playoff appearances without a win, the chance to come back healthy and matter in a different way could be just as important as the timing of his return. [Read more 🡒]