With one month left in the 2026 MLB season, the MVP races have finally stopped feeling like coronations. For the last few years, Aaron Judge and Shohei Ohtani looked locked in long before the ballots were ever cast. This time, both awards have tilted hard away from the familiar names.
In the National League, Cubs outfielder Pete Crow-Armstrong has moved into pole position after Ohtani’s knee injury has kept him off the mound since July 3. In the American League, Astros DH Yordan Álvarez has grabbed the lead after Judge’s fractured rib has sidelined him since May 31. There’s still plenty of baseball left, though, and nothing is sealed with a month to go.
Crow-Armstrong has turned the NL race into a sprint he’s controlling. His glove has always been elite in center field, but now the bat has caught back up to the defense. After a slow start, he’s once again producing like the hitter he was in the middle of last season, and the combination has made him maybe the league’s best all-around player.
The numbers are loud. Crow-Armstrong leads MLB in fWAR at 8.6 and bWAR at 7.9.
He tops the NL in slugging at .548 and wRC+ at 1553, and he’s tied for second in OPS at .922. He’s also gone 30-30 with 33 homers and 32 steals, putting him in position to become the seventh player in the 40-40 club.
Add in 23 outs above average, which leads the NL, and it’s clear why he’s sitting so far out front. His walk-off homer against the White Sox on August 17 only added to the case.
PCA REACHES THE 30/30 MARK IN WALK-OFF FASHION. pic.twitter.com/1JvfTLDk02
Barring a prolonged slump, the kind he hit last year and into this season, he looks like the favorite to finish the job.
Ohtani is still hanging around, but the gap has opened. The Dodgers star was expected by many to roll to his fourth straight MVP and fifth overall once he returned to the mound full time, but injury has limited him to 14 starts. Even so, the pitching numbers were excellent: 8-2 with a 1.79 ERA, 0.95 WHIP and 95 strikeouts in 85 2/3 innings.
At the plate, he has been outstanding by ordinary standards, just not as overwhelming as in recent seasons. After posting OPS marks above 1.000 in each of the last three years, he’s now slashing .285/.385/.542 with 30 home runs and 80 RBIs.
He’s tied with Crow-Armstrong for the NL OPS lead and ranks third in on-base percentage and wRC+ at 149. His combined fWAR is 7.0, good for second in the majors, and his combined bWAR is 6.8, which ranks third.
A huge September could still make this interesting, especially if Crow-Armstrong cools off, but the race feels close to done.
Kyle Schwarber is the only other NL name worth mentioning, even if he’s a long shot. His early-season homer barrage had people wondering whether 60 was in play, but July slowed him down. He hit just three homers and drove in seven runs that month, then picked it back up in August with seven homers, 19 RBIs and an .808 OPS.
Overall, Schwarber is hitting .243/.358/.531 with 40 homers, 81 RBIs and a 137 wRC+, but his league-leading 191 strikeouts and limited time in the field have held down his WAR totals. Both his fWAR and bWAR sit at 2.8.
If he gets hot again and the Phillies somehow catch the Braves in the NL East, he could force his way into the conversation. Right now, though, it’s a two-man race at best.
Álvarez has taken a similar stranglehold in the AL. He’s been crushing the ball all year and has basically dragged an underperforming Astros club into first place in the AL West. His chase for a Triple Crown is going to draw plenty of attention in September, and the case he’s already built is massive.
He leads the AL in batting average at .319 and home runs with 36, and he’s tied for first in RBIs with Orioles first baseman Pete Alonso at 91. On top of that, he leads all of MLB in on-base percentage at .434, slugging at .614, wRC+ at 183 and OPS at 1.051.
That’s the profile of the best hitter in the sport by a wide margin. Even with only 21 games in the field, his 5.9 bWAR ranks third in the AL and his 5.9 fWAR ranks second.
At this point, it’s his award to lose.
The next name in the AL mix is Junior Caminero, whose odds have slipped but who still sits second on the board. The 23-year-old has become a real star on the Rays, who have separated from the rest of the pack in the AL East.
Caminero is slashing .280/.366/.531 with 35 homers and 84 RBIs. His .897 OPS ranks third in the AL, and his 146 wRC+ is fourth.
The catch is that his overall value numbers lag behind the leaders, with his bWAR at 4.4 and his fWAR at 4.0. He’s had a big year for the best team in the league, but he’d need a monster September and a stumble from Álvarez to truly crash the race.
Bobby Witt Jr. remains the most complete player in the AL, even if the injury and the Royals’ season make the MVP path steep. His defense has separated him from everyone else, and his 24 outs above average lead MLB from shortstop, the toughest position on the field.
Despite missing time with a back injury, Witt leads the AL in bWAR at 6.2 and fWAR at 6.3. Offensively, he’s been good rather than jaw-dropping by his own standards, hitting .289/.366/.459 with 16 home runs, 49 RBIs, a 127 wRC+ and 36 steals. Those aren’t classic MVP batting numbers, but on pure value, he’s been the league’s best player.
Two things are working against him. He missed 19 games, which means his value total would look even stronger if he’d stayed healthy.
And Kansas City’s place in the standings doesn’t help; the Royals are last in the weak AL Central and 7 1/2 games out of the final wild card spot. It’s tough to win over MVP voters when your team isn’t playing meaningful games.
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