The 2026 Home Run Derby has the kind of star power that makes Citizens Bank Park feel like the center of the baseball world. Bryce Harper and Kyle Schwarber are both in the mix for the Phillies in front of their own fans, and the new format only adds to the intrigue.
Schwarber enters as the betting favorite at roughly +290, with sportsbooks treating him as the man to beat. Harper is further down the board at +900, which puts the former champion with the 6th best odds on FanDuel. But the name that keeps jumping out is Junior Caminero, who sits around +380 and has a real chance to take the whole thing.
Caminero was one of the hottest hitters in the sport before the All-Star break, and he’s kept that pace rolling. In July, he already has five home runs.
That comes after a June in which he launched 10 homers and added four doubles. On the season, he owns a .927 OPS with 28 home runs and 59 RBIs, good for 4th in the majors in bombs.
At this point, it feels like he’s capable of leaving the yard every night.
He also came close in last year’s derby before falling to Cal Raleigh, and that near miss gives him another layer of urgency this time around. With MLB loading up the field for the new format, the event has the kind of talent that makes any outcome believable. Caminero has the raw power to beat anybody in the bracket, and he could even end up with the farthest home run of the night.
The 20-swing first round should reward hitters who can settle in quickly and hunt the right pitches. Schwarber’s track record says he can punish almost anything he sees, which is why he’s the favorite. Still, Caminero has the kind of pop that can flip the script, and he’ll be trying to do it in Schwarber’s backyard.
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Kyle Schwarber Finally Weighed In On MLB's Derby Change
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For Schwarber, the bigger adjustment may not even belong to the hitter. He pointed out that the pitcher feeding balls into the derby will have to recalibrate the whole operation, from where to stand to how hard to throw, and even adjust to throwing to a catcher rather than a batting-practice backdrop. It is the kind of behind-the-scenes wrinkle that can matter just as much as the format itself, especially for a showcase built around rhythm, timing and repetition. [Read more 🡒]