The Philadelphia Phillies have reached an odd, uncomfortable point in the stretch run: the path that might help them most now runs straight through the Atlanta Braves.
After dropping seven of their last 10 games against Atlanta, the Phillies have watched a chance to tighten the National League East slip away. The two clubs split a four-game set at Citizens Bank Park, two wins apiece, and Philadelphia missed a chance to trim the deficit after coughing up a late lead in Game 3 because of a bullpen letdown.
Things didn’t get any easier at Truist Park. The Phillies lost Game 1 in extra innings, then had Jesus Luzardo scratched from his Game 2 start.
That forced a bullpen game, and while Tim Mayza opened well, Brooks Raley was hit hard. Philadelphia did avoid the sweep by taking the finale, but the standings now show the Braves five games ahead with 12 games left.
Atlanta also owns the tiebreaker.
That leaves Phillies fans in a strange spot. Catching the Braves from here would take a minor miracle, and while nobody in the clubhouse is ready to give up before elimination is official, the fan base is almost certainly looking elsewhere - straight at the Wild Card race.
As of Sept. 14, Philadelphia is tied with the Chicago Cubs for the No.
1 Wild Card spot in the National League, 1.5 games ahead of the San Diego Padres and 2.5 games in front of the Arizona Diamondbacks. And now the Braves head to Wrigley Field for a three-game series against the Cubs, a matchup Phillies fans probably won’t love watching but very much need Atlanta to win.
The reason is simple: Philadelphia also doesn’t own the tiebreaker over Chicago, so finishing a full game ahead matters. If the Braves can take care of business against the Cubs, that could give the Phillies a crucial edge in the race for the top Wild Card spot.
Chicago still has the Reds, the Marlins and then the Red Sox on the schedule after that. The Reds are nine games under .500 and could be mathematically eliminated before the series starts.
The Marlins are 7.5 games back in the Wild Card chase and could be in the same spot. Boston could also have a postseason berth locked up by then, likely turning that final series into more of a rest-and-rotation tune-up than a full-throttle push.
So for Philadelphia, the math is awkward but clear: Atlanta is the best hope for nudging Chicago into a few losses and giving the Phillies a shot to grab the top Wild Card position and control their own fate.
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