The NL East has turned into a real chase at the All-Star break, and the race now looks centered on Atlanta and Philadelphia.
For a while, the Braves seemed ready to cruise. They built a 10.5-game cushion after winning their fourth straight to reach 36-16 on May 22, then still sat 9.5 games up on June 7 after another three-game streak pushed them to 45-21.
Since then, though, Atlanta has slipped. The Braves have gone 10-19 over the month leading into the break, and that opened the door for the Phillies.
Atlanta still has plenty going for it. Matt Olson leads the offense with 25 home runs, and Chris Sale has been a force on the mound with a 2.20 ERA. But that may not be enough if Philadelphia keeps playing the way it has lately.
The Phillies looked finished in April. They dropped their 10th straight game on April 24 to fall to 8-18, and Rob Thomson was fired a few days later.
Since then, the turnaround has been dramatic. Under Don Mattingly, Philadelphia has gone 45-24 after starting 9-19.
Kyle Schwarber and Bryce Harper have carried the lineup, Brandon Marsh has put together a breakout All-Star season, and the pitching has backed it up. Cristopher Sanchez, Zack Wheeler, and Jesus Luzardo have all given the Phillies strong innings, while Jhoan Duran has been his usual dominant self at the back end.
Miami is still hanging around, sitting just two games behind Philadelphia and four behind Atlanta, but this still feels like a two-team fight. The Marlins may stay in the mix, yet overtaking both the Phillies and Braves is a tall order.
The Nationals are showing something too, with James Wood and CJ Abrams giving them a solid base. In another division, that might mean more. In the NL East, it doesn’t change the picture much.
At the break, the division odds point to the same thing the standings do: Atlanta and Philadelphia are the teams to watch, with the rest trying to keep pace.
In Other News...
Phillies Fans Face Another Miserable Wait Before Mets Opener
Smoke from Canadian wildfires has already turned the sky hazy across parts of the Midwest, Northeast and Mid-Atlantic, and Philadelphia is among the cities feeling it most as the Phillies get ready to open a key series against the Mets on July 16. The air quality in the city is sitting in the unhealthy range, adding another layer of discomfort to a matchup that already carries plenty of weight for a fan base that has been waiting for meaningful baseball to pick back up.
The smoke is also casting a wider shadow over Fridays MLB schedule, with other games in places like Cleveland and Chicago potentially dealing with the same conditions depending on how the wind shifts. For the Phillies, though, the immediate concern is simpler and more familiar: a night at the ballpark that may look and feel a lot different than anyone hoped when the series was first circled on the calendar. [Read more 🡒]
Phillies Face A Costly Jhoan Duran Decision They Can't Dodge
Since arriving in Philadelphia, Jhoan Duran has settled into the closer role and given the Phillies the kind of late-inning certainty they were hoping to buy at the deadline. The early returns have been strong enough that the next question is no longer about whether he fits, but how long the Phillies can realistically keep him if they want to turn a short-term upgrade into something more durable.
That is where the decision gets expensive in a hurry. Duran is still years away from free agency, which gives the Phillies time to weigh an extension before the market gets even more complicated, but the timing also means they are staring at a pre-free-agency negotiation rather than a simple retention move. With elite reliever contracts already setting a high bar and the broader financial landscape in baseball potentially shifting again, Philadelphia may have to decide sooner than later how much it is willing to pay to keep its ninth-inning answer in place. [Read more 🡒]
Phillies Just Took A Bullpen Hit At The Worst Time
The Phillies came back from the All-Star break a little earlier than most clubs, opening the second half against the Mets in a nationally televised game with the kind of timing that can sharpen every roster move. They also chose to give Zack Wheeler and Cristopher Snchez a few extra days of rest, leaving Aaron Nola to take the ball in the opener and keeping Jess Luzardo and Alan Rangel lined up behind him as they try to keep the rotation lined up for the stretch run.
The bullpen, though, took the kind of hit teams hate to absorb this time of year. Brad Keller landed on the 15-day injured list because of a right elbow issue, and the Phillies had to turn to Seth Johnson, recalled from Triple-A Lehigh Valley, to fill the vacancy. For a club trying to bank wins while managing its arms carefully, losing a reliable relief option right as the second half begins makes the margin a little thinner. [Read more 🡒]