The Phillies and Braves are headed into a Game 3 showdown with an NLDS berth on the line, and the home run has already been the defining theme of this wild card series.
Atlanta got the first punch in Game 1 when Austin Riley launched a three-run homer in the bottom of the eighth. Philadelphia answered in Game 2 with solo shots from Kyle Schwarber, Bryce Harper and Alec Bohm, and that was enough to send the matchup to a winner-take-all finale in 10 innings.
With one more game left and plenty of power already on display, the home run prop market is where the attention turns next.
Neither club has announced a starter, but Aaron Nola, Zack Wheeler, Ray Kerr and Grant Holmes are all possible options, and that uncertainty shaped the two names worth watching here: Drake Baldwin for Atlanta and Schwarber for Philadelphia.
Baldwin is coming off a productive Wednesday, when he collected two hits and an RBI, and his numbers against Nola make him an intriguing play if the veteran right-hander gets the ball. The Braves catcher/designated hitter is 5-for-11 (.455) against Nola in his career with a .955 OPS, and he’s driven in one run against him. Nola also gave up 37 home runs in 33 starts during the regular season, which is hard to ignore in a spot like this.
Even if Nola doesn’t stick around long, Baldwin still has a path to value. Atlanta already took Nola deep twice in a game in September, and the Phillies may not get to pull him before he gives up another homer.
Baldwin’s regular-season production backs up the case, too. He hit .284 overall and .307 with 18 of his 25 home runs against right-handed pitching. He also came into the playoffs swinging well, batting .360 with two homers, five RBIs and a .951 OPS over the final two weeks, a stretch that covered 12 games.
That makes him a live long-shot at nearly 7/1.
Schwarber is the other obvious power threat. He homered in Game 2, and the Phillies slugger finished the regular season with 45 home runs. There’s also useful history here depending on which Atlanta arm shows up first.
Against Grant Holmes, Schwarber has already gone deep before. He is 2-for-11 against Holmes, who allowed 22 home runs during the regular season and posted shaky underlying numbers, ranking in the 12th percentile in expected ERA and the 18th percentile in expected batting average allowed.
If the Braves open with Ray Kerr, the matchup still leans toward Schwarber. Kerr owns a 1.47 ERA in 2026, but Schwarber actually hit lefties better this season, posting a .260 average and .896 OPS against them. He also knocked 15 of his 45 homers off southpaws during the regular season.
Schwarber has already delivered plenty of postseason fireworks in his career, and another big swing in Game 3 would hardly be a surprise.
In Other News...
Andrew Painter Just Changed The Phillies Biggest Playoff Fear
When the Phillies needed a steady arm in the biggest pressure spot of their Wild Card Series, Don Mattingly turned to rookie Andrew Painter in relief during extra innings of Game 2 against the Braves. Painter responded with three scoreless innings, and the Phillies rode that effort to a 4-3 win that sent them on to the next round, a result that did more than just keep their October alive.
Painters outing also offered something Philadelphia has been searching for this postseason: a little more confidence in the back end of games. Along the way, several key pitch calls went his way after challenges were overturned, adding to the sense that the night kept bending toward the Phillies, even before the final out was recorded. [Read more 🡒]
Braves Fans Have One Big Reason To Watch Phillies In Game 3
The Phillies have turned this series into exactly the sort of October test they wanted after winning their final regular-season game just to get here. Alec Bohm and Bryce Harper have already supplied important power and timely production, and Philadelphia has found enough offense to keep pace with Atlanta as the NL Wild Card Series has tightened into a bullpen-heavy chess match.
Game 3 now shifts the spotlight to Aaron Nola, with the Phillies leaning on him to stabilize the night while the relief corps waits behind him, including Alex McFarlane and Jhoan Duran. Atlanta is expected to go with an opener and then piece together the rest with relievers who have already been used in the series, which leaves this one feeling like the kind of matchup where every inning can change the tenor of the whole night. [Read more 🡒]
Phillies Face A Do-Or-Die Pitching Gamble In Game 3
The Phillies are taking a bold route in Game 3, handing the ball to Aaron Nola with the season hanging in the balance against Atlanta. Zack Wheeler is expected to be available behind him in relief, giving Philadelphia a chance to deploy one of its top arms in a different role if the situation turns late, while Jhoan Duran could be the final piece if the game reaches the closing innings.
Atlanta, meanwhile, is lined up to counter with left-hander Ray Kerr as an opener before Grant Holmes likely handles the bulk of the work. It sets up a pitching chess match with very little margin for error, and for the Phillies, the real question is not just whether Nola can deliver, but how long the club can wait before leaning on Wheeler in a game they need to have. [Read more 🡒]