The Phillies left their four-game set with the Braves with plenty to sort through, but one number kept moving in the right direction anyway.
Philadelphia split the series at Citizens Bank Park, and the path there had a little of everything. Game 1 ended in a loss with Cristopher Sanchez on the mound, a result that also forced a change in the bullpen pecking order and set Orion Kerkering up for a new role. The club answered in Game 2 to square things up.
Game 3 looked like it might belong to the Phillies for a while. Aaron Nola was sharp over seven innings, but the bullpen issues showed up again. Alex McFarlane allowed a game-tying three-run homer to Ronald Acuna Jr. in the eighth, and the Braves pushed across a run against Jhoan Duran in the ninth, taking the season-long tiebreaker in the process.
Philadelphia recovered in Game 4, though, getting a 1-0 win behind Jesus Luzardo and Kyle Schwarber to salvage the split.
Even with their National League East deficit unchanged from the start of the series, the Phillies’ Magic Number improved. After Monday afternoon’s win, it sits at 14 heading into the club’s series with the Houston Astros.
According to Sports Magic Numbers, Philadelphia now has a 97.1% chance to reach the postseason. The path is trending the right way, with the Phillies listed at 5.8% to win the NL East and 91.4% to land a Wild Card spot.
That number could dip by one more depending on how a few other games shake out. Phillies fans have reason to watch the Kansas City Royals against the Arizona Diamondbacks and the Washington Nationals versus the San Diego Padres. If the Royals or Nationals win, the Magic Number drops by one.
At the time this piece was submitted, Kansas City and Arizona were tied 0-0 in the sixth inning, and the Nationals-Padres game had not yet started.
The Chicago Cubs are also worth tracking, even though their result won’t affect the Magic Number. Philadelphia and Chicago are battling for the No. 1 spot in the NL Wild Card race.
The outside help is useful, but the math still comes down to what the Phillies do themselves. Keep stacking wins, and the Magic Number keeps shrinking.
In Other News...
Phillies Risk Letting A Familiar Problem Linger At Third Base
Alec Bohm has spent seven seasons carving out a regular place in the Phillies infield since his 2020 debut, and the rsum is respectable enough on the surface. He has hit .274/.325/.412 with 85 home runs and 474 RBIs, even earning an All-Star nod in 2024, but for a player taken where Bohm was, the overall package has still felt short of the kind of impact Philadelphia hoped for at third base.
The question now is whether the Phillies will treat that as a reason to look elsewhere or as another case for keeping a familiar face in place. President of baseball operations Dave Dombrowski has generally favored continuity, which leaves Bohms looming free agency after the 2026 season as a potential crossroads the club may be slow to approach even if the broader fit remains in doubt. [Read more 🡒]
Kyle Schwarber Is Chasing A Phillies Feat Fans Can Savor
Kyle Schwarber has spent this season doing what he does best, and the power display has him sitting atop Major League Baseball in home runs as the Phillies keep leaning into the middle-of-the-order damage he brings every night. He already has 43 long balls, giving him a narrow edge over the rest of the field and putting him in position for another milestone that would fit neatly into a career built on slugging.
Schwarber has led the National League in home runs before, including in 2022 and 2025, but the next step would mean something a little different for both him and the Phillies. It would mark the first time in his career that he finishes as the game's outright home run leader, and ESPN's analysts have started to view that as the likeliest path, with Pete Crow-Armstrong the only other name drawing votes in the prediction and still trailing by three. [Read more 🡒]
Jess Luzardo Keeps Making This Phillies Move Look Better
Jess Luzardo has quickly turned the late-2024 trade to Philadelphia into one of those moves that looks better with each passing month. Acquired from the Marlins for Starlyn Caba and Emaarion Boyd, Luzardo has settled in as a strong part of the Phillies rotation, backing up the gamble with improved pitching and then a five-year, $135 million extension that showed just how much the club believes in him.
For the Phillies, the trade has become a reminder that sometimes the real payoff is not immediate but obvious once a pitcher finds the right fit. Miami is still waiting for the prospects to take a major step forward, and Luzardos rise in Philadelphia only sharpens the contrast. The deal is looking increasingly like the kind of move that can shape a roster long after the original transaction is made. [Read more 🡒]