Andrew Painter has done enough to put himself squarely in the Phillies’ postseason conversation, even if the path to a playoff start still looks steep.
That wasn’t the case earlier this season. Philadelphia took the risk of handing a rotation spot to the rookie instead of bringing in a veteran on a one-year deal to help survive the grind of 162 games, and the early returns were rough. Painter went 1-8 with a 7.06 ERA in 12 starts before the club sent him to the minors.
The reset in Lehigh Valley changed things. Painter came back from Triple-A with sharper stuff and made his first big league start since the demotion on July 31 in Baltimore, where he took a no-decision in a 6-4 loss to the Orioles after giving up two earned runs on three hits.
Since returning, the 23-year-old has kept opposing lineups off balance. He has allowed three or fewer hits in five of his seven starts, and his changeup has become a real weapon. As WIP’s Jack Fritz noted:
Hitters are hitting .077 against Andrew Painter’s changeup since being recalled from AAA with a nearly 20% whiff rate.
Fixing the fastball has gotten a lot of the attention, rightfully so, but the change to the changeup has been equally as big.
- Jack Fritz (@JackFritzWIP) September 3, 2026
Painter’s workload has also shown the Phillies they can trust him to keep taking the ball. He has thrown at least 93 pitches in each of his last five outings, and with a few weeks left in the season, he has locked down his fifth rotation spot through the end of the regular season.
The bigger question is what happens when the games start to matter most. In October, there may simply not be room for Painter in the rotation unless interim manager Don Mattingly needs him as a spot starter. Postseason rotations usually shrink from five arms to three, and that makes it hard to see Painter bumping Cristopher Sánchez, Zack Wheeler, Jesús Luzardo, or even Aaron Nola.
Nola’s case is especially strong, with a 5-4 record and a 3.88 ERA in 11 postseason appearances. If Painter keeps pitching well over the final month, there would still be plenty of noise if he somehow pushed his way into a start over Nola.
The more likely route is a bullpen role, where Painter could work the middle innings and hand the game over to Orion Kerkering, Brooks Raley, Jose Alvarado, and Jhoan Duran. That would give him a chance to log postseason experience in lower-leverage spots while still giving the Phillies another power arm to use.
He wouldn’t be the first starter to end up in that kind of October role. Roki Sasaki did it for the 2025 Dodgers, Madison Bumgarner for the 2014 Giants, and David Price for the 2008 Rays and 2018 Red Sox. Those examples are part of the reason Painter’s case matters: starting pitchers can absolutely shape a playoff run even when they’re not in the rotation.
Mattingly still has a decision to make in a few weeks, but the top of the Phillies’ postseason rotation looks set. Sánchez, Wheeler, and Luzardo are the obvious anchors, and Nola appears to have the edge for the next spot. That leaves Painter where he may be most useful this October - in the bullpen, ready to make hitters uncomfortable when the pressure starts climbing.
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Matt Gelb of The Athletic put the spotlight on the issue by noting the Phillies may need to rethink where Kerkering fits in the relief hierarchy. Alex McFarlane has been much steadier lately and is now making a case for the sort of high-leverage responsibilities that once looked like Kerkerings to lose. For a club trying to sort out its late innings, the question is no longer just who gets the ball, but who can be trusted when the game is on the line. [Read more 🡒]