Don Mattingly doesn’t sound like a manager hoping Aaron Nola can survive a postseason start. He sounds like one who expects it.
That’s a notable shift for the Philadelphia Phillies veteran, whose season started in rough shape before he completely changed the conversation after July. With the Phillies closing in on a playoff berth and their rotation still looking like the club’s clearest edge, Nola has moved from liability to a pitcher Mattingly trusts to take the ball in October if needed.
“What he’s been able to do for us, it’s kind of turned that spot in the rotation to (where) you feel like he’s going to give you a good game every time now,” Mattingly said, via Charlotte Varnes of The Athletic (subscription required). “He’s just like Sanchy and Zeus and Wheels - you just feel like you’re getting a good outing every time.”
That kind of confidence wasn’t there early. Through his first 17 starts, Nola had a 6.04 ERA and was coming off a brutal outing against the Pittsburgh Pirates, when he allowed eight runs, seven earned, in just 4.1 innings.
He wasn’t finishing games, either. In those first 17 appearances, he made it past the fifth inning only four times.
Since then, the right-hander has looked like a different pitcher. Over his last 15 starts, Nola has posted a 3.10 ERA in 89.1 innings with 90 strikeouts. He has also started working deeper into games, topping five innings 11 times in that stretch and easing the load on the bullpen.
The home run ball is still part of the story - he has allowed 17 - but the damage has been much more manageable. Against the Milwaukee Brewers, for instance, he gave up two solo shots instead of letting innings unravel with runners on base.
“I gave up a lot of home runs this year,” Nola said, “but I felt like more solos in the second half rather than the first, (which was) two-, three-run homers a lot. (I was) just not making as quality pitches (then), and pitches were kind of hanging a little bit more than the second half.”
That turnaround matters for a Phillies team that has fought its way back from being as many as 10 games under .500 in April and is now on the verge of clinching a playoff spot. They are essentially one win away from the National League field because the San Diego Padres and Arizona Diamondbacks, two of the teams they’re chasing, are playing each other this weekend, meaning one of them has to lose.
Even with Jesus Luzardo potentially unavailable, the Phillies still feel strong at the top because Cristopher Sanchez and Zack Wheeler are in place, and Nola has pitched his way into the next spot behind them. For Mattingly, that’s enough to make the veteran a real postseason option.
In Other News...
Phillies Suddenly Face A Risky Pitching Call In Must-Win Game
With the Phillies down to the final push in the chase for a postseason berth, every inning carries extra weight, and the rotation plan has become a real question as the Magic Number sits at two. Philadelphia still needs to stay ahead of the Arizona Diamondbacks, which leaves little room for error and makes Sundays pitching decision feel a lot bigger than a normal late-September start.
A bullpen game is on the table, a sign of how thin the options have become as the club tries to cover enough innings without overtaxing anyone. Aaron Nola could even be used in relief, while Jose Urquidy and Nestor Cortes are among the other possible arms to help piece together the night, leaving the Phillies to navigate one of those tricky spots where getting to the finish line may matter more than the method. [Read more 🡒]
Phillies Suddenly Face A Brutal Wild Card Problem
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Elsewhere in the playoff picture, Eury Perez turned in a complete-game one-hitter in the Marlins win over the Braves, a sharp reminder of how unpredictable September can be. For the Phillies, the more immediate concern is simple: Arizona is surging, Philadelphia is trying to hold its ground, and the club can no longer assume the cushion will last. [Read more 🡒]
Phillies Could Be Headed For Another Ugly Outfield Fix
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If Arraez cannot play, the Phillies may have to reshuffle things again at a time when the roster already feels unstable in the corners and out in the grass. It is the kind of injury update that can ripple quickly through the rest of the lineup, and for a team still searching for cleaner answers, the next few days could bring another awkward fix rather than a simple replacement. [Read more 🡒]