The Flyers have moved up a bit in NHL contract efficiency, but they’re still not getting enough bang for the buck.
That’s the big takeaway from another look at how Philadelphia’s deals stack up around the league. After finishing 26th last year, the Flyers climbed to 20th this time around.
Better, sure. But still squarely in the bottom half, and still short of where a team in a rebuild wants to be when it starts locking players in.
A lot of the issue comes down to how many of these contracts land in the “fine” category instead of the “win” category. The Flyers have been active on extensions lately, with Trevor Zegras, Jamie Drysdale, Dan Vladar, Travis Konecny, Owen Tippett, and Tyson Foerster among the notable names getting new deals. But being active isn’t the same as beating the market.
As was noted, the Flyers’ roster took a positive step under Rick Tocchet hockey, and that helped lift some of the value picture. Noah Cates was singled out as one of the biggest beneficiaries, while the Tyson Foerster extension added some real surplus value. Even so, the overall grade still comes in below average because several of the club’s bigger contracts are simply fair rather than especially advantageous.
That was the core point from the evaluation:
"One year makes a pretty big difference. The Flyers’ roster responded really well to Rick Tocchet hockey, with much of the roster’s value taking a positive step forward. Noah Cates was arguably the biggest beneficiary of that, and the Tyson Foerster extension helped add a fair bit of surplus value.
"Still, the Flyers land a bit below average thanks to a string of deals that are close to fair for both sides from Trevor Zegras, Christian Dvorak, Jamie Drysdale and Dan Vladar. There’s nothing wrong with that, but in a rising cap world in which other teams are getting massive wins, fair deals aren’t quite enough."
Cates and Foerster stand out as two of the better contracts on the roster, though both are defense-first, middle-six players. Cates, 27, has three years left at a $4 million cap hit, and that number is starting to look like a real bargain in the current cap environment. By comparison, Christian Dvorak’s five-year deal carries a $5.15 AAV.
In the grading, Cates earned an A-, while Dvorak landed at B-.
The model also wasn’t especially fond of some of Philadelphia’s other notable commitments. Noel Acciari’s two-year, $2.8 million AAV deal was graded a C+, Travis Konecny’s seven-year, $8.75 million AAV contract got a C, and Sean Couturier’s four-year, $7.75 million deal came in at D.
The Acciari signing was a move the Flyers made deliberately in free agency, while the Konecny extension was a long-term eight-year commitment that keeps a hefty cap hit on the books well into his prime-to-late years.
On the other hand, Zegras, Drysdale, and Vladar all came out as fair-value deals, each receiving a B-. No Flyers player received better than an A, though Cates, Foerster, and Travis Sanheim each earned A- marks. Sanheim’s situation is a notable one, given that this front office nearly traded him before that contract ever really got going.
There’s still a clear challenge ahead for Philadelphia. The team can point to some strong value on the margins, but the real question is whether it can start finding surplus value on more than just depth pieces. Zegras stands out there, and so do the long-term questions around Porter Martone and Matvei Michkov once their entry-level contracts are up.
For now, the Flyers have improved from where they were a year ago. But with so many long-term commitments already on the books, especially for players in or near their 30s, there’s only so far they can climb without getting more aggressive about beating the market.
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