The NHL’s salary cap is no longer just a ceiling. It’s become a lever, and teams are using it to pry open trades, force decisions and rewrite the market in real time.
The upper limit has already jumped to $104 million for the 2026-27 season, after sitting at $95.5 million last season. It is projected to rise again to $113.5 million in 2027-28, with league forecasts putting the 2028-29 number as high as $127.5 million.
That kind of growth has changed the way front offices think. Every deal now comes with the same built-in question: what is this player going to cost when the cap rises again?
The most jarring example came on July 3, when the Flyers handed restricted free agent Leo Carlsson a five-year, $90 million offer sheet. The $18 million average annual value was the richest in NHL history at the time. If Anaheim had refused to match, Philadelphia would have sent four first-round picks - one in each of the next four drafts - back to the Ducks.
The way the deal was built mattered as much as the number. Carlsson’s base salary was near the league minimum each year, while signing bonuses carried most of the value.
His first-year bonus was $19.95 million. Roughly $85.3 million of the $90 million came in bonus money, and the final season includes a no-movement clause.
Anaheim has rarely paid signing bonuses, which made the offer especially difficult to swallow.
The Ducks matched the sheet on July 9, one day before the deadline. Carlsson is now under contract through 2030-31. “an offer that I couldn’t say no to,” he said of Philadelphia’s pitch, while also adding that he “always wanted to be here too.”
The bigger lesson from that move spread beyond Anaheim. Before July, teams could keep second contracts for young players relatively manageable because those players did not yet have arbitration rights.
Philadelphia showed what happens when another team with cap room decides to blow up that leverage. Since then, clubs around the league have moved faster and paid more to lock up their young talent.
The deals stacked up quickly. On July 29, Macklin Celebrini landed a five-year, $94 million extension from San Jose, with an $18.8 million AAV that begins in 2027-28. Chicago followed by giving Connor Bedard a five-year, $75 million deal at $15 million per season.
Then came the latest benchmark on August 28, when Colorado signed Cale Makar to an eight-year, $163.2 million extension. His $20.4 million AAV also starts in 2027-28 and lands just below the $20.8 million maximum, which equals 20% of the current cap.
The flow of money didn’t stop there. Columbus gave Adam Fantilli a six-year, $82.5 million contract on September 24, good for $13.75 million annually and just $250,000 shy of Leon Draisaitl’s record $14 million AAV from September 2024.
Anaheim re-signed Cutter Gauthier for six years and $81 million. Washington extended Ryan Leonard for eight years and $92 million after one full season and 45 points.
Vancouver locked up Zeev Buium for eight years at $75.04 million.
Not every negotiation ended with a long-term commitment. Seattle reportedly put eight years and more than $15 million per season on the table for Jason Robertson in a sign-and-trade.
He passed. Robertson instead agreed to a one-year, $12 million deal with Dallas, setting up unrestricted free agency next summer after a 45-goal season.
A new four-year collective bargaining agreement, which took effect on September 16, is adding even more pressure to these decisions. Contract length is now capped at seven years for players re-signing with their own team and six years for players signing elsewhere.
Signing bonuses are also limited to 60% of a contract’s total value. That means a structure like Carlsson’s, built around heavy bonus money, would no longer be allowed.
Those rules matter in trades too. A team acquiring a player can only offer seven years if it later re-signs him, so term and cap hit on the existing deal matter even more.
A star under a below-market contract becomes extremely valuable in an inflationary market. On the other hand, a player signed long-term at a high number can turn difficult to move if his performance slips.
Retained salary remains part of the equation. Teams can hold back as much as 50% of a player’s cap hit in a trade, which means a $6 million hit can be reduced to $3 million for the buying club at full retention.
Third-party brokers still play a role too, taking on part of a contract in exchange for draft picks. With the cap climbing, more teams have room to step into that middleman position.
The rising ceiling also rewards teams that move early. In hindsight, Anaheim could have extended Carlsson in July 2025 at a much lower number.
That’s the new race: sign the young star before the next cap jump changes the price again. Other clubs are choosing the opposite path, preserving space either to chase offer sheets or to absorb bad money from teams looking to clear room.
More big decisions are coming. Quinn Hughes can re-sign with Minnesota at any point this season.
If he gets to July 1 unsigned, he becomes an unrestricted free agent. Nikita Kucherov is also in the final year of his deal with Tampa Bay.
Both teams are chasing Stanley Cup aspirations this season, and a trade before the playoffs would affect the odds at Melbet sportsbook (Arabic: مراهنات).
Next summer could be even louder. Connor McDavid, Auston Matthews and Zach Werenski will be eligible to re-sign with their current teams, and the projected maximum AAV would climb to $22.7 million. If they wait until 2028, that figure could reach $25.5 million.
Commissioner Gary Bettman expects the pace of growth to ease eventually. “Once we recapture it, which will take probably two more years, give or take, then it’ll go up at the same rate as revenues grow,” he said.
Until then, the market is going to keep stretching. Teams with championship hopes have to balance soaring star contracts against the depth needed in the spring.
Rebuilders can turn cap space into picks and prospects. Carlsson’s offer sheet made one thing clear: in this NHL, cap room can be a weapon, and it can be a safety net too.
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