The Flyers’ young core is drawing plenty of attention heading into Wednesday night’s season opener, and the betting markets are making the same point: Matvei Michkov and Porter Martone are the names to watch.
Michkov enters his third full season with Philadelphia after an uneven second year, while Martone is trying to carry over the momentum he built in a late-season cameo last spring. Both players are being priced like they could make a real leap.
For Michkov, the bounce-back case starts with the goals market. DraftKings Sportsbook has him at -120 to score 25 or more, +300 to reach 30, +1500 for 35, and +3000 for 40.
The 25-goal line implies a 54.55% chance, while the 30-goal number sits at 25%. The longer shots come in at 6.25% for 35 goals and 3.23% for 40.
That kind of optimism isn’t coming out of nowhere. Michkov opened his NHL career with 26 goals and 63 points in his rookie season, then followed that with 20 goals and 51 points in 81 games last year after a late push helped him salvage the totals. He has already piled up 161 NHL games, and the expectation around him is that the scoring volume is about to climb again.
His point props tell a similar story. DraftKings has him at -147 for 60 or more points, +130 for 65, +475 for 75, +800 for 80, +1500 for 85 and +2800 for 90. Michkov’s rookie season produced 63 points, and the market is basically betting on a return to that neighborhood, with 60 points carrying an implied probability of 57.81%.
The winger is listed on Philadelphia’s “third” line to start, but Tocchet has made it clear those labels don’t mean much. Michkov is expected to get the ice time he earns, and he’s come into camp in terrific shape after standing out in September and in the Flyers’ two preseason games.
Martone’s market is even tighter in some ways, because there just aren’t many books posting numbers on his individual production. theScore Bet has him at +130 to score 30 or more goals and +550 to reach 40. Those odds imply a 43.48% chance of 30 goals, which is a strong number for a rookie.
Martone made a quick impression after joining the Flyers late last season. He put up 10 points, including four goals, in his first nine regular-season games, then scored the game-winning goal in each of his first two playoff games against the Penguins. He also put together a huge season at Michigan State, finishing with 25 goals and 50 points in 35 games as a freshman.
He’ll open on the top line and the power-play unit, but there’s still reason for caution. The Flyers are a defense-first team under Tocchet, so asking for 30 goals right away is a lot, even if Martone has looked every bit like a player who can step into the league and matter immediately.
The ceiling is obvious, though. The 40-goal number is on the board, and so are 80 and 90 points, with Martone listed at +300 for 80 and +800 for 90. Hitting those marks would require a massive season from both him and the team, especially since only 27 players across the league reached 80 points last year and 35 got to 75.
Martone was the betting favorite for most of the offseason Calder race, but Gavin McKenna has moved ahead of him, and Ivar Stenberg is another rookie to keep an eye on in San Jose. Still, if you’re that high on Martone, the Calder Trophy may be the cleaner wager.
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