Leo Carlsson’s path to the Flyers’ offer sheet came down to timing, market shifts and a structure the player and his family simply couldn’t turn away from.
That’s how Matt and Ryan Keator, the agents for the Anaheim Ducks center, described the process during a special Tuesday night edition of 32 Thoughts. The father-son duo walked through how they evaluated Carlsson’s value, why they waited, and how Philadelphia ultimately put together a deal that changed the conversation.
Matt Keator said Anaheim general manager Pat Verbeek had been persistent in talks through September and October, but the agents wanted time to study where the market was headed before committing. Ryan Keator said he took the lead on that side of the process, focusing on the cap percentage, comparable contracts and the broader cap outlook. He pointed to the post-pandemic rise in the ceiling and said they were looking at roughly a 40 per cent increase in the cap from 2023-24 to 2028-29.
“The big thing I was looking at was the cap going up,” Ryan said, adding how the post-pandemic landscape has seen a boost in the cap ceiling. And one that will see roughly a 40 per cent increase in the cap from 2023-24 to 2028-29. “Those are astronomical numbers, and we just didn’t want to jump on something right away,” Ryan said.
The agents said they were also trying to make sure Carlsson understood the changing landscape before he signed anything. Matt Keator said in November that the goal was to “educate” the player about the market so he wouldn’t end up regretting a deal later. He acknowledged that $80 million is a massive number, but said the NHL’s salary environment has to be part of the equation.
“Now listen $80 million is a lot of money, we understand that, we get that. But we’re living in a marketplace and operating within the NHL marketplace.
Every contract that a player signs affects others around him. You have to be cognizant about that.”
Ryan Keator also said he and his father were still trying to “figure out” who Carlsson was as a player, and made clear the decision to keep waiting was theirs, not Anaheim’s.
By the end of the season, the Ducks were pushing hard to get something done, but the agents still held off. They met with Carlsson and his family in early June and viewed Chicago’s Connor Bedard as the “key comparable” for the center.
The offer sheet itself came into play at the start of the league’s open window. Matt Keator said they knew the possibility existed, but didn’t think it was likely.
Then, at 12:04 a.m. on June 30, a team reached out. He said seven or eight teams expressed interest, four made offers, and the field was eventually cut to two.
Anaheim was warned the situation could be “coming into play.”
On July 1, the Flyers sent Carlsson the offer in writing, and Matt Keator said the player was “speechless.”
“I think he was overwhelmed by the structure, how it was front-loaded, almost all of it in signing bonus, and frankly that makes a huge difference when you’re making that decision,” Matt said. “Because that’s up-front money.
That’s money in your pocket with compound interest, so the value’s even greater. I think the offer he received was something that he and his family couldn’t refuse.
Like The Godfather, he made him an offer he couldn’t refuse.”
Matt Keator said Philadelphia never put a hard deadline on the table, but everyone involved felt urgency to get it done. The numbers were first discussed with Carlsson and his camp on June 30, then laid out in full on July 1. From there came six nervous days while the agents waited to see whether Anaheim would match.
The deal was signed on July 3, with Carlsson opting not to pass on what was in front of him. The agents said they didn’t share the post-signing conversation, saying it wouldn’t be fair to Anaheim, but they did say several teammates congratulated him and understood that his cap hit could change things around him. They also described the split with Anaheim as strictly transactional.
“It wasn’t personal, just business.”
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