Week 3 closes with an NFC matchup that looked a lot bigger a few days ago than it does now, as the Eagles head to Chicago with the Bears dealing with major quarterback uncertainty.
Philadelphia enters Monday night at 2-0, but the start has come with some shaky moments. The Eagles let the Washington Commanders stick around in Week 1, then needed Jalen Hurts to engineer a late drive in Week 2 to avoid an upset against the Tennessee Titans. Even so, they’re still in position to keep the early-season roll going against a Bears team suddenly scrambling at quarterback.
Chicago’s situation changed fast. Caleb Williams is out with a hamstring injury, Tyson Bagent is questionable with a concussion, and that leaves veteran Case Keenum as the likely starter on Monday night. It’s a rough turn for the Bears, who were actually favored in the lookahead line before Williams went down against the Minnesota Vikings.
The market has moved sharply since then. Chicago shifted from 1.5-point favorites in the lookahead line to 4.5-point underdogs, a six-point swing that tracks with what oddsmakers told Sports Illustrated. Joey Feazel, Head of Football at Caesars Sportsbook, said Williams is worth six points to the spread.
That said, this doesn’t look like a spot where the Eagles are expected to run away with it. Philadelphia has won its first two games, but the numbers behind the start are pretty ordinary: the Eagles rank 13th in the NFL in EPA/Play on offense and 21st in EPA/Play on defense. They’ve beaten two teams that aren’t expected to make the postseason in 2026, so there’s still room for skepticism.
That opens the door a little for Chicago to stay inside the number, even with the quarterback situation stacked against it. Keenum has plenty of starting experience, and the Bears did flash offensive explosiveness in Week 1, when they scored 59 points. But Week 2 was a different story, with the offense going quiet in bad weather against the Vikings.
Ben Johnson’s track record at home as an underdog is spotless at 3-0 against the spread, but asking this group to lean on a third-string quarterback is a different challenge altogether. With Williams out, it’s hard to picture the Bears making a major jump on Monday night.
Still, I’m expecting this one to be closer than the injury report suggests.
Prediction: Eagles 24, Bears 20
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