The Philadelphia Eagles punched their ticket to the postseason for the fifth straight year and locked up back-to-back NFC East titles with a win over the Washington Commanders on Saturday night. That’s no small feat in a division known for its unpredictability. But while the Eagles know they’re in, the big question now is where they’ll land in the NFC playoff bracket-and the answer is anything but settled.
Let’s break down what’s on the table for Philly as we head into the final stretch of the regular season.
At Minimum: A Home Playoff Game
No matter how the final two weeks play out, the Eagles are guaranteed a top-four seed, which means they’ll host at least one playoff game at Lincoln Financial Field.
That’s significant-not just because home-field advantage matters, but because the Eagles haven’t lost a postseason game at the Linc since 2019. That place gets loud in January.
The Most Likely Outcome: No. 3 Seed
This is the scenario Eagles fans should probably get comfortable with. The path to the No. 3 seed is the cleanest and most probable.
If the Eagles win just one of their final two games-or if the Carolina Panthers drop one of theirs-Philly locks in the third seed.
That’s manageable. The Eagles travel to face the Buffalo Bills in Week 17, which won’t be easy, but they close the season at home against a 4-11 Washington Commanders team. Meanwhile, the Panthers would have to beat both the Seahawks and the Buccaneers to shake things up, and that’s a tall order.
Still in Play: The No. 2 Seed
Now here’s where things get interesting. If the Eagles want to move up a spot and guarantee themselves home-field advantage through at least the Divisional Round, they need to win out and get some help.
Specifically, they need the Chicago Bears to lose both of their remaining games-on the road against the San Francisco 49ers, then at home against the Detroit Lions. On paper, that’s plausible.
Both the Niners and Lions are playoff-caliber teams with high-powered offenses. But the Bears have been tough down the stretch, so expecting them to drop both might be wishful thinking.
As of Sunday morning, Philly’s odds of snagging the No. 2 seed sat at around 16%, according to projection models. So it’s not impossible-but it’s a narrow window.
The Longshot: No. 1 Seed
Technically, it’s still on the board. Realistically?
It’s a near-miracle scenario.
The Eagles would need a cascade of unlikely outcomes to fall their way:
- The 49ers lose both of their next games-first to the Colts, then to the Bears.
- The Seahawks lose to both the Panthers and 49ers.
- The Rams drop at least one of their last two games, either to the Falcons or Cardinals.
- And the Bears lose to the Lions in Week 18.
That’s a lot of dominoes to fall. The odds?
Less than 1%. But hey, until the 49ers take the field on Monday night against the Colts, it’s still alive.
The Worst-Case Scenario: No. 4 Seed
This one’s unlikely but not off the table. For the Eagles to fall to the No. 4 seed, they’d have to lose both of their remaining games and the Panthers would need to win out.
Losing to the Bills on the road is one thing-that’s a tough environment, and Buffalo’s still fighting for their own playoff life. But dropping the finale at home to Washington?
That would be a collapse. Add in the Panthers needing to beat both Seattle and Tampa Bay, and it’s clear this scenario lives in the “everything goes wrong” category.
Bottom Line
The Eagles have done the hard part-clinching the division and securing a playoff berth.
Now it’s about positioning. The No. 3 seed is the most likely landing spot, and that comes with a home game and a clear path to the Divisional Round.
But if they can finish strong and get a little help, the No. 2 seed is still within reach.
As for the top spot? Don’t hold your breath. But in the NFL, strange things happen in December.