Justin Herbert Expected to Start vs. Eagles Despite Hand Surgery - But the Chargers Offense May Look Very Different
It looks like Justin Herbert is on track to start Monday night against the Eagles, just six days after undergoing surgery on his fractured left (non-throwing) hand. Barring a last-minute setback, the Chargers quarterback is expected to be under center-well, technically not under center-when the 8-4 Chargers face off against the equally 8-4 Eagles in a game with serious playoff implications.
Herbert suffered the injury early in last week’s 31-14 win over the Raiders on a scramble play, colliding with Raiders safety Jeremy Chinn. His left hand slammed into Chinn’s helmet, and the aftermath was clear: Herbert stood up, stared at his hand in disbelief, and walked back to the huddle with the kind of look you don’t often see from him.
Then, in classic Herbert fashion, he shook it off and delivered a dart to Quentin Johnston for a touchdown on the very next snap. No hesitation, no panic-just a quarterback doing what elite quarterbacks do.
After briefly exiting to get the hand wrapped, Herbert returned, tossed an interception in the end zone (credit to the Raiders for a solid defensive play), and then bounced back with another touchdown. He finished the day 15-of-20 for 151 yards, two touchdowns, and a 108.5 passer rating. Not bad for a guy playing with a busted hand.
Postgame, Herbert was adamant: he’d be ready for the Eagles, surgery or not. And so far, he’s backed that up with a full week of practice. The Chargers coaching staff is preparing as if he’ll be the starter, and all signs point to that being the case.
That’s huge for the Chargers, not only because of Herbert’s talent, but because the alternative is Trey Lance, whose career numbers-56.4% completion rate and a 79.9 passer rating-don’t exactly inspire confidence in a high-stakes matchup.
Still, even with Herbert under center (or rather, not under center), the Chargers offense is going to look different. Once Herbert returned to the field last week with his left hand wrapped and gloved, he took every snap from the shotgun or pistol. That’s likely to continue on Monday night, as the surgically repaired hand makes it nearly impossible for him to take snaps under center.
And that’s a big deal.
The Chargers have leaned on under-center looks to diversify their offense, especially in the run game and play-action. When you’re under center, it’s harder for defenses to key in on run direction, and it opens up more deceptive play-action concepts. The Eagles themselves have started to lean into this more-at times-and it’s paid dividends when they’ve committed to it.
According to Next Gen Stats, Herbert averages 8.6 yards per attempt when throwing from under center, compared to 6.9 from the gun. That’s nearly a two-yard difference, and it’s not insignificant.
The Eagles, meanwhile, have been excellent defending quarterbacks in shotgun formations. They’re holding opponents to just 6.2 yards per attempt (fourth-best in the league) and a league-best 57% completion rate from the gun.
So yeah, Vic Fangio is probably just fine with a shotgun-only Herbert.
Don’t expect Fangio to bring heavy blitzes, though. Herbert’s quick release and ability to make throws under pressure make him a tough guy to rattle.
Nearly 44% of his passes this season have come out in under 2.5 seconds, and since losing left tackle Joe Alt in Week 10, that number has jumped to nearly 54%-third-highest in the NFL. That’s a quarterback who knows the pressure is coming and is getting the ball out fast.
Fangio doesn’t need to get exotic here. The Chargers are already hamstrung without their under-center looks, and their offensive line is banged up. The challenge will be whether Herbert can still find success threading tight windows against Fangio’s zone-heavy scheme-a scheme that has given trouble to other strong-armed quarterbacks like Jordan Love and Jared Goff this season.
In Week 13, Herbert completed 20% of his tight-window throws-fifth-best among starters-but again, that was against the Raiders, not this Eagles defense.
Take this play as an example: third-and-10, the Raiders showed a loaded front with three linemen stacked on the left side of the Chargers' offensive line. That’s usually a tip-off for a stunt or a blitz, and sure enough, Maxx Crosby looped inside.
The Chargers picked it up, and Herbert found Keenan Allen on the boundary to move the chains. That kind of quick processing and execution is what makes Herbert special.
The Eagles, though, have Quinyon Mitchell on the boundary now, and he’s not likely to give Allen the same kind of cushion. Still, don’t be surprised if Chargers offensive coordinator Greg Roman-who grew up just down the road in Atlantic City-tries to manipulate matchups with motion and formation, maybe targeting Adoree’ Jackson on the field side with quick throws.
One such example came last week when the Raiders dropped a defensive lineman to spy Herbert while only rushing three. Rookie receiver Tre Harris adjusted his alignment thanks to motion from Ladd McConkey, and Herbert hit him with a lightning-fast release. That’s the kind of quick-strike execution the Chargers will need if they’re going to move the ball consistently against this defense.
Of course, for the Eagles, the key is to tighten up their run defense and force Herbert into those third-and-long situations. That’s where Fangio’s zone concepts can really shine, shrinking windows and baiting quarterbacks into mistakes.
The bottom line? Herbert may be playing hurt, but he’s still dangerous. The Eagles will need to bring their A-game defensively, because even without the full playbook at his disposal, Herbert has the tools to make this a long night for any defense.